#15Dak Prescott

QB·Mississippi State·2015 2014 201310.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Dak Prescott is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Mississippi State. Dak's 2014 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 594 plays — a average rate for the QB. Dak's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dak Prescott's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

244/396 Comp/Att3449 Pass yards27 Pass TD11 INT61.6% Comp %

Rushing

986 Rush yards14 Rush TD210 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency48
Volume100
Dual-Threat84
Consistency84
Clutch64

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.69 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs South Alabama (SP+ -4).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouthern Miss	W49-0	-15.9	18/26	284	4	1	59.7	23	0	0.32
2	vsUAB	W47-34	-4.2	12/25	211	4	1	86.6	111	1	0.40
3	@South Alabama	W35-3	-4.3	13/21	201	1	0	94.5	139	1	0.69
4	@LSU	W34-29	21.5	15/24	268	2	0	78.3	105	1	0.04
6	vsTexas A&M	W48-31	20.2	20/26	268	2	0	87.3	77	3	0.45
7	vsAuburn	W38-23	24.2	18/34	246	1	2	62.1	121	2	0.26
9	@Kentucky	W45-31	6.6	18/33	216	1	1	64.1	88	2	0.24
10	vsArkansas	W17-10	12.2	18/27	331	1	2	68.2	61	0	0.41
11	vsUT Martin	W45-16	—	14/23	206	2	0	94.6	54	1	0.58
12	@Alabama	L20-25	34.3	27/48	290	2	3	30.9	82	0	0.16
13	vsVanderbilt	W51-0	-4.3	16/21	193	3	0	91.5	30	1	0.69
14	@Ole Miss	L17-31	20.7	22/37	282	1	0	29.0	48	1	0.14
1	vsGeorgia Tech	L34-49	11.2	33/51	453	3	1	55.9	47	1	0.31

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.9%

Passing plays

95.7%

Rushing plays

34.4%

Standard downs

56.7%

Passing downs

72.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.40
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.32

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Mississippi State	2.1	0.240	—	82.6
2014	Mississippi State	10.9	0.474	+0.23	289.9
2015	Mississippi State	13.6	0.514	+0.04	336.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.