#15Dak Prescott

QB·Mississippi State·2015 2014 20132.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Dak Prescott is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Mississippi State. Dak's 2013 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 339 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Dak's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dak Prescott's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

156/267 Comp/Att1940 Pass yards10 Pass TD7 INT58.4% Comp %

Rushing

829 Rush yards13 Rush TD134 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency35
Volume100
Dual-Threat94
Consistency81
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)35th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.59 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Rice (SP+ -2).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsOklahoma State	L3-21	21.8	7/17	89	0	1	4.0	9	0	-0.06
2	vsAlcorn State	W51-7	—	12/19	174	2	0	97.6	20	1	0.11
3	@Auburn	L20-24	25.2	15/28	213	0	0	81.9	133	2	0.29
4	vsTroy	W62-7	-14.5	13/21	233	1	0	97.7	53	2	0.47
6	vsLSU	L26-59	28.7	9/20	106	0	1	55.6	103	1	0.23
7	vsBowling Green	W21-20	9.8	7/11	75	0	1	86.5	139	2	0.11
9	vsKentucky	W28-22	-2.5	23/34	268	2	0	81.7	33	0	0.43
10	@South Carolina	L16-34	19.8	28/43	235	0	3	31.4	78	2	0.31
11	@Texas A&M	L41-51	20.4	14/26	149	2	1	80.9	154	0	0.36
14	vsOle Miss	W17-10	12.4	11/20	115	0	0	89.1	29	1	0.17
1	vsRice	W44-7	-1.5	17/28	283	3	0	97.8	78	2	0.59

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

46.7%

Passing plays

71.3%

Rushing plays

27.0%

Standard downs

44.1%

Passing downs

52.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.37

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Mississippi State	2.1	0.240	—	82.6
2014	Mississippi State	10.9	0.474	+0.23	289.9
2015	Mississippi State	13.6	0.514	+0.04	336.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.