#11Chad Kelly

QB·Ole Miss·2016 201510.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Chad Kelly is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Ole Miss. Chad's 2016 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 398 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chad Kelly's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

205/328 Comp/Att2758 Pass yards19 Pass TD8 INT62.5% Comp %

Rushing

332 Rush yards5 Rush TD81 Carries4.1 Yards/carry

Punting

3 Punts131 Punt yards43.7 Yards/punt49 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency65
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency86
Clutch58

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.84 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Georgia (SP+ 9).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida State	L34-45	24.0	21/39	313	4	3	66.8	15	0	0.31
2	vsWofford	W38-13	—	20/27	219	3	0	93.4	13	0	0.65
3	vsAlabama	L43-48	31.7	26/40	421	3	0	67.3	43	0	0.54
4	vsGeorgia	W45-14	9.3	18/24	282	2	0	92.5	53	1	0.84
5	vsMemphis	W48-28	7.7	30/44	361	1	1	76.3	0	0	0.31
7	@Arkansas	L30-34	7.9	18/39	253	1	1	55.4	89	2	0.29
8	@LSU	L21-38	25.3	20/33	218	1	2	43.8	56	0	0.15
9	vsAuburn	L29-40	15.3	36/59	465	3	1	65.2	40	0	0.35
10	vsGeorgia Southern	W37-27	-3.9	16/23	226	1	0	85.7	23	2	0.62

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

61.1%

Passing plays

96.1%

Rushing plays

22.0%

Standard downs

53.0%

Passing downs

81.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.37
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.41

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Ole Miss	17.5	0.635	—	370.2
2016	Ole Miss	10.0	0.552	-0.08	220.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.