Carson Strong is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Nevada. Carson's 2021 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 555 plays — a average rate for the QB.
What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.46Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.05Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.51Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carson Strong's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2021 Production
Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers
- Efficiency65
- Volume100
- Dual-Threat0
- Consistency85
- Clutch100
Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -24).
NIL Market Tier· 2021
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.25
- Passing downs
- 0.59
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.41 / -0.30
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.