#3Cam Akers

RB·Florida State·20191.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Cam Akers is a Featured Back for Florida State. Cam's 2019 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 262 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Cam Akers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1144 Rush yards14 Rush TD231 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

30 Receptions225 Rec yards4 Rec TD7.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Explosiveness40
Consistency51
Receiving52

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency51th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Peak game: 0.46 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Syracuse (SP+ -3).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsBoise State	L31-36	8.1	15	116	7.7	1	2	12	0	-0.09
2	vsUL Monroe	W45-44	-10.7	36	193	5.4	2	5	55	1	0.29
3	@Virginia	L24-31	6.3	18	78	4.3	0	3	9	1	0.25
4	vsLouisville	W35-24	0.2	29	112	3.9	3	3	21	0	0.09
5	vsNC State	W31-13	-6.3	17	83	4.9	1	2	11	0	0.05
7	@Clemson	L14-45	28.1	9	34	3.8	0	—	—	—	-0.06
8	@Wake Forest	L20-22	2.0	30	157	5.2	1	4	42	1	0.16
9	vsSyracuse	W35-17	-3.0	20	144	7.2	4	2	1	0	0.46
10	vsMiami	L10-27	9.6	22	66	3.0	0	3	23	1	-0.06
11	@Boston College	W38-31	-5.7	18	59	3.3	1	4	49	0	-0.08
14	@Florida	L17-40	24.0	17	102	6.0	1	2	2	0	0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

35.0%

Passing plays

10.1%

Rushing plays

64.2%

Standard downs

40.2%

Passing downs

25.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.03
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.