#10Caden Veltkamp

QB·Western Kentucky·2025 20247.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Caden Veltkamp is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Western Kentucky. Caden's 2024 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 473 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Caden Veltkamp's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

258/389 Comp/Att3108 Pass yards25 Pass TD10 INT66.3% Comp %

Rushing

150 Rush yards7 Rush TD113 Carries1.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency38
Volume100
Dual-Threat50
Consistency68
Clutch76

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.07 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Middle Tennessee (SP+ -24).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Alabama	L0-63	25.0	4/9	11	0	0	11.1	6	0	-0.24
3	@Middle Tennessee	W49-21	-24.4	27/30	398	5	0	96.3	0	1	1.07
4	vsToledo	W26-21	-2.5	20/30	242	1	2	36.6	20	2	0.19
5	@Boston College	L20-21	1.2	25/39	232	2	2	59.1	16	0	0.26
7	vsUTEP	W44-17	-22.7	18/27	264	3	1	72.1	29	1	0.47
8	@Sam Houston	W31-14	-6.9	20/29	281	3	0	83.9	27	1	0.56
10	vsKennesaw State	W31-14	-25.1	17/22	276	3	0	81.6	26	0	0.59
11	@New Mexico State	W41-28	-19.0	18/27	246	2	2	67.6	25	2	0.47
12	vsLouisiana Tech	L7-12	-11.6	18/26	152	0	0	50.8	17	0	0.12
13	@Liberty	L21-38	0.2	20/34	262	2	3	66.9	30	0	0.26
14	vsJacksonville State	W19-17	-1.0	28/47	301	1	0	26.4	7	0	0.11
15	@Jacksonville State	L12-52	-1.0	18/30	141	1	0	7.6	-41	0	-0.10
20	vsJames Madison	L17-27	7.5	25/39	302	2	0	76.5	-12	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.6%

Passing plays

90.4%

Rushing plays

24.9%

Standard downs

55.2%

Passing downs

68.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 — 2025 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2024	Western Kentucky	7.6	0.455	—	247.1
2025	Florida Atlantic	4.0	0.290	-0.17	154.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.