#14Bryce Petty

QB·Baylor·2014 201312.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Bryce Petty is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Baylor. Bryce's 2014 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 495 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Bryce Petty's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

270/428 Comp/Att3855 Pass yards29 Pass TD7 INT63.1% Comp %

Rushing

101 Rush yards6 Rush TD84 Carries1.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency73
Volume100
Dual-Threat54
Consistency76
Clutch60

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.93 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Buffalo (SP+ -8).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7
J.T. Barrett	Ohio State	2017	576	0.593	14.1	341.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSMU	W45-0	-21.2	13/23	161	2	0	84.1	21	1	0.42
3	@Buffalo	W63-21	-7.7	23/34	416	4	0	98.1	11	0	0.93
5	@Iowa State	W49-28	-7.9	30/44	336	1	1	83.1	47	2	0.17
6	@Texas	W28-7	9.0	7/22	111	2	0	5.5	7	0	-0.24
7	vsTCU	W61-58	23.3	28/55	510	6	2	61.9	23	0	0.30
8	@West Virginia	L27-41	8.4	16/36	223	2	0	24.9	-9	0	-0.02
10	vsKansas	W60-14	-9.8	15/27	277	3	0	65.2	11	0	0.39
11	@Oklahoma	W48-14	19.2	32/42	387	1	0	71.6	-8	0	0.37
13	vsOklahoma State	W49-28	8.6	18/29	262	2	2	71.0	23	1	0.38
14	vsTexas Tech	W48-46	4.9	18/25	210	2	0	78.1	5	0	0.43
15	vsKansas State	W38-27	16.3	34/40	412	1	1	84.5	6	1	0.50
1	vsMichigan State	L41-42	24.1	36/51	550	3	1	88.8	-36	1	0.52

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.5%

Passing plays

87.9%

Rushing plays

11.5%

Standard downs

44.2%

Passing downs

55.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.40
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Baylor	3.3	0.264	—	108.4
2014	Baylor	12.6	0.542	+0.28	294.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.