#5Brian Hill

RB·Wyoming·2016 20151.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Brian Hill is a 2-year Featured Back for Wyoming. Brian's 2016 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 320 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brian Hill's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1860 Rush yards22 Rush TD349 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

8 Receptions67 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.4 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns27 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Explosiveness46
Consistency43
Receiving18

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency43th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Peak game: 0.52 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs UC Davis.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorthern Illinois	W40-34	-2.4	33	125	3.8	2	1	5	0	0.06
2	@Nebraska	L17-52	10.3	17	49	2.9	1	—	—	—	-0.07
3	vsUC Davis	W45-22	—	25	207	8.3	2	1	5	0	0.52
4	@Eastern Michigan	L24-27	-8.2	22	82	3.7	1	—	—	—	-0.10
5	@Colorado State	W38-17	0.8	19	166	8.7	1	—	—	—	0.47
6	vsAir Force	W35-26	4.4	29	92	3.2	1	—	—	—	-0.16
8	@Nevada	W42-34	-13.0	29	289	10.0	3	1	13	0	—
9	vsBoise State	W30-28	11.5	28	146	5.2	0	—	—	—	-0.04
10	vsUtah State	W52-28	-4.4	25	142	5.7	2	1	5	0	0.05
11	@UNLV	L66-69	-14.3	23	119	5.2	3	—	—	—	0.22
12	vsSan Diego State	W34-33	11.4	31	131	4.2	2	1	3	0	-0.03
13	@New Mexico	L35-56	-5.1	26	126	4.8	3	—	—	—	0.30
14	vsSan Diego State	L24-27	11.4	16	93	5.8	0	2	17	0	-0.01
1	vsBYU	L21-24	8.0	26	93	3.6	1	1	19	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

35.2%

Passing plays

3.4%

Rushing plays

58.1%

Standard downs

43.2%

Passing downs

19.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.14
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.17 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Wyoming	1.6	0.190	—	51.9
2016	Wyoming	1.3	0.210	+0.02	65.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.