#1Brashard Smith

RB·SMU·20241.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Brashard Smith is a Featured Back for SMU. Brashard's 2024 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 260 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brashard Smith's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

1330 Rush yards14 Rush TD234 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

39 Receptions327 Rec yards4 Rec TD8.4 Yards/rec

Returns

14 Kick returns320 KR yards0 KR TD1 Punt returns-2 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume83
Explosiveness54
Consistency70
Receiving64

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs TCU (SP+ 11).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
0	@Nevada	W29-24	-15.2	11	67	6.1	1	2	26	0	—
1	vsHouston Christian	W59-7	—	9	108	12.0	2	—	—	—	0.41
2	vsBYU	L15-18	15.3	14	75	5.4	0	4	21	0	-0.14
4	vsTCU	W66-42	10.8	18	127	7.1	3	2	24	1	0.56
5	vsFlorida State	W42-16	-3.2	17	129	7.6	1	3	50	0	0.47
6	@Louisville	W34-27	13.6	13	52	4.0	0	3	17	0	-0.04
8	@Stanford	W40-10	-8.2	8	67	8.4	0	1	9	0	0.35
9	@Duke	W28-27	5.6	26	117	4.5	2	3	22	0	0.20
10	vsPittsburgh	W48-25	4.9	23	161	7.0	2	4	21	1	0.34
12	vsBoston College	W38-28	1.2	18	120	6.7	1	4	13	0	0.25
13	@Virginia	W33-7	-5.1	19	63	3.3	1	—	—	—	-0.14
14	vsCalifornia	W38-6	4.0	16	68	4.3	1	3	66	1	0.32
15	vsClemson	L31-34	13.3	24	114	4.8	0	6	34	1	0.11
20	@Penn State	L10-38	24.6	18	62	3.4	0	4	24	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.0%

Passing plays

10.2%

Rushing plays

45.4%

Standard downs

35.1%

Passing downs

16.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.47 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.