#2Avery Johnson

QB·Kansas State·20247.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Avery Johnson is a Dual-Threat QB for Kansas State. Avery's 2024 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 472 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Avery Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

217/372 Comp/Att2712 Pass yards25 Pass TD10 INT58.3% Comp %

Rushing

605 Rush yards7 Rush TD113 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Air yards

Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.

Attempts

9.6y

Avg depth

6.2y

After catch

69%

Catch rate

The ball travels 9.6 yards in the air on an average throw — 1.1 yards deeper than the median. Another 6.2 comes after the catch.

Where he throws

attempts · completion rate · yards

deep

0% · 0y

50% · 36y

0% · 0y

short

80% · 152y

83% · 56y

82% · 141y

leftmiddleright

Depth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency48
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency81
Clutch90

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.94 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs West Virginia (SP+ 2).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsUT Martin	W41-6	—	14/21	153	2	1	39.5	37	0	0.17
2	@Tulane	W34-27	5.7	15/23	181	2	0	75.5	40	0	0.43
3	vsArizona	W31-7	-2.8	14/23	156	2	0	75.2	110	0	0.43
4	@BYU	L9-38	15.3	15/28	130	0	2	45.1	74	0	0.12
5	vsOklahoma State	W42-20	-2.6	19/31	259	3	1	92.6	60	2	0.69
7	@Colorado	W31-28	8.1	15/23	224	2	1	61.9	-15	1	0.51
8	@West Virginia	W45-18	2.1	19/29	298	3	0	96.5	—	—	0.94
9	vsKansas	W29-27	4.9	19/34	253	2	0	66.7	67	1	0.25
10	@Houston	L19-24	-8.2	23/39	238	1	2	47.9	18	0	0.18
12	vsArizona State	L14-24	9.4	24/40	258	0	2	54.5	21	1	0.10
13	vsCincinnati	W41-15	-0.1	13/23	147	2	0	77.3	72	1	0.42
14	@Iowa State	L21-29	10.3	12/28	220	3	0	61.5	64	0	0.35
20	vsRutgers	W44-41	6.4	15/30	195	3	1	71.4	57	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.7%

Passing plays

97.7%

Rushing plays

23.2%

Standard downs

53.4%

Passing downs

67.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.53
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.50

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.