#3Ahmani Marshall

RB·App State·2024

Ahmani Marshall is a Committee Back for App State. Ahmani's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 150 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ahmani Marshall's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

713 Rush yards7 Rush TD149 Carries4.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions71 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume67
Explosiveness36
Consistency0
Receiving26

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Peak game: 0.53 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Marshall (SP+ 3).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsEast Tennessee State	W38-10	—	3	13	4.3	0	—	—	—	—
2	@Clemson	L20-66	13.3	7	28	4.0	0	1	1	0	—
3	@East Carolina	W21-19	-1.0	4	8	2.0	0	1	3	0	0.03
4	vsSouth Alabama	L14-48	2.8	4	17	4.3	0	—	—	—	-0.05
6	@Marshall	L37-52	3.1	10	48	4.8	2	1	6	0	0.53
7	@Louisiana	L24-34	4.8	4	5	1.3	0	—	—	—	-0.68
9	vsGeorgia State	W33-26	-17.9	18	115	6.4	1	—	—	—	0.22
10	vsOld Dominion	W28-20	-6.0	23	120	5.2	0	1	11	0	0.18
11	@Coastal Carolina	L24-38	-6.9	28	124	4.4	2	6	36	0	0.23
13	vsJames Madison	W34-20	7.5	24	108	4.5	1	—	—	—	-0.06
14	@Georgia Southern	L20-29	-1.7	24	127	5.3	1	1	14	0	-0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.4%

Passing plays

3.4%

Rushing plays

43.9%

Standard downs

29.2%

Passing downs

12.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.07
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.06 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).