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App State

App State Mountaineers

Sun Belt·2-0·
Compare
Elo
1310#115
SP+
-7.2#93
FPI
-5.2
AP
NR
Nextvs Charlotte · Wk 3Win prob 79%Model -12.1
Talent #85 (621.6)Recruiting class #5938% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on App State

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East Carolina's power game runs into App State's best unit

Matchup · 6d ago

App State runs away from Maine, 55-3

Matchup · Sep 6

Roster · 109 players

FR 30SO 14JR 21SR 44
#PlayerPosClHtWt
3Malachi SingletonQBSR6'1"225
8Henry HasselbeckQBJR6'3"200
10Gregory FeeQBSO6'5"215
15Bronzden ChaffinQBFR6'4"235
17Tommy UlatowskiQBSR6'1"195
2Kanye RobertsRBSR6'0"205
5Jaquari LewisRBSO5'10"205
11Ja'Quez CrossRBSR5'9"195
26Max GuestRBSO5'9"190
31Jaysen AnguloRBSR6'0"205
39Treyaun WebbRBSR5'11"220
48JMarion BurnetteRBJR6'2"220
0Sam Pickett IIIWRSO6'0"185
1Nate BranchWRJR5'9"180
6Chris LoftonWRSR6'0"185
12Sam MbakeWRSR6'3"205
13Jackson GrierWRSR5'11"195
16Alexander SanchezWRSO6'2"200
18Kamauri AustinWRFR6'4"205
22Semaj FlemingWRSO5'8"175
28Cash BrownWRFR5'10"155
80Doopah ColemanWRSO5'11"195
81Derick BrazilWRJR6'0"175
82Zalin IngramWRJR6'3"185
83Dazmin JamesWRSR6'2"200
84Ryan MorrisonWRJR6'0"180
88Kabran PaulWRFR5'10"165
89Zach TaylorWRJR6'4"175
7Darrin FugittTESR6'5"240
19Jamel HowseTEFR6'4"250
45Gavin BarberTEFR6'3"240
85Luke DouglasTEJR6'5"240
86Brice WilliamsonTEFR6'3"240
87Dillon GallowayTESO6'4"245
50Eisa EvansOLFR6'6"300
52Cayden SweattOLSR6'4"300
55Ben JonesOLFR6'3"295
56Jayden ThomasOLJR6'4"305
57Devon ManuelOLSR6'7"325
60Caden MuskusOLFR6'5"300
63Scottland DoverOLFR6'5"305
64Jarvis PottsOLFR6'4"290
65Mac WaltersOLSR6'6"300
66Danny StevensOLSR6'4"300
67Trent RamseyOLSR6'5"315
68Lance WilliamsOLSR6'3"305
70Big Al OliverOLSO6'5"305
72Nick KashubaraOLFR6'4"295
73Tre GloverOLFR6'4"315
74Kamron BurrisOLSR6'5"305
75Greydon GrimesOLJR6'6"290
76Jahlon HarrisOLFR6'6"315
77Daniel DavisOLSR6'6"300
78Tyriq PoindexterOLSR6'5"310
11Jordan HarrisDLFR6'6"235
19Christian WaringDLFR6'3"305
33Aiden BentonDLSR6'2"250
41Caleb SandstromDLSR6'3"250
44Manny LewisDLFR6'2"280
45Nick CampbellDLSR6'4"290
46Nick AveryDLSO6'5"280
50Jehchys BrownDLSR6'2"300
58Chris DoyleDLFR6'2"300
84Sawyer ArnoldDLFR6'4"230
88Kaden EllisDLSO6'1"300
93Keaton BraddockDLJR6'5"230
94Caleb PittsDLSO6'2"265
95Ki'Shawn HarveyDLSR6'1"320
96Ricky LoloheaDLJR6'3"310
97Xavier JosephDLFR6'2"255
98Kelvin CrawfordDLSO6'2"230
99Aaron ClarkDLJR6'0"305
5Carson SloanLBJR6'2"230
10Colton PharesLBSR6'2"225
13Keshawn ThomasLBSR6'1"230
15Alex MitchellLBSR6'1"235
16Kevin HendersonLBJR5'11"215
22BJ JuniusLBFR6'0"205
35Brooks YurachekLBSR6'1"225
49Randy Marion IIILBSR6'0"210
52Michael McclentonLBFR6'0"230
0Juan BerchalDBSO5'10"185
1Ja'Den McBurrowsDBSR5'11"195
2Micah WilliamsDBFR6'0"180
3Ja'Cari HendersonDBSR6'0"180
4Jakob GudeDBJR5'11"190
6Khalil ConleyDBJR5'11"185
7Devin HendersonDBJR5'10"200
8Dre WalkerDBSR6'2"195
9Ahmad RobinsonDBSR6'0"180
12Cary GrantDBSR6'2"195
17DaRon WilsonDBJR6'2"190
18Syncere BerryDBFR6'2"180
20Eric AdamsDBSR6'1"205
21Joe ReddishDBSR5'11"190
24Josh WilliamsDBSR5'10"190
26Kaleb PurdyDBSR5'11"185
27Cam FlemingDBSR6'0"195
30Dorrian MedleyDBFR6'3"175
36Luke LairDBSR6'2"190
39Kavin WhiteDBJR6'0"195
29Carter EverettPKSR5'10"195
36Andrew CummingsPKFR5'8"195
83James LondonPKSR6'0"195
40Jaxson DunnPJR6'1"190
43Evan MulcarePFR6'0"170
34Parker StoneLSSR6'4"220
42Cale SchiralliLSFR6'0"190
47Hardy ButlerLSFR5'10"205

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
41.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
13.5
scoring defense
Differential
+27.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
521.5#18
Yards / play
7.2#23
Passing yards / game
307.5#25
Rushing yards / game
214.0#35
First downs / game
27.5#14
3rd down %
33.3%#104
4th down %
100.0%#1
Time of possession
34:38#17
Defense
Yards allowed / game
333.5#78
Yards / play allowed
5.1#70
Pass yards allowed / game
214.0#81
Rush yards allowed / game
119.5#72
3rd down % allowed
28.6%#36
Sacks
4#60
Tackles for loss
14#29
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+3#15
Takeaways
4#22
Giveaways
1#21
Penalties / game
8.5#114
Penalty yards / game
55.0#66

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

App State is in year 2 under Dowell Loggains. The strengths are defensive, led by 33rd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 117th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air, and they are 115th on early downs defensively.

App State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Defensehitting chunk plays
    #33
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Defensestaying on schedule through the air
    #117
    projected
  • Defensefirst and second down
    #115
    projected
  • Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points
    #114
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
6.7 – 5.3
projected final record (now 2–0)
Exp. wins left
4.7
of 10 games
Bowl odds
80%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
79%
vs Charlotte
Toughest
13%
vs NC State

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

23456789101112
final winstallest bar = 27% chance
Likeliest finish 7-5 (27%)Bowl eligible 80% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBMalachi Singleton, Henry Hasselbeck
+33.2 EPA
WRJackson Grier, Chris Lofton +3
+25.4 EPA
TEDarrin Fugitt, Jamel Howse +2
+12.1 EPA
RBJa'Quez Cross, Jaquari Lewis
+4.5 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBMalachi Singleton
~$977K
EPA +33.20.519/play64 snaps
RBJaquari Lewis
~$169K
EPA +3.10.120/play26 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3066th#48
Def0.1631st#96
Explosiveness
Off1.3264th#51
Def1.1569th#43
Field position
Off68.739th#85
Def76.711th#123
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.3259th#57
Def2.7072nd#40
Turnovers
Won 4Lost 1
Margin +3

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.6688th#17
Off · rush
0.0734th#92

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.0731st#95
Def0.267th#128
Passing
Off0.6688th#17
Def0.0875th#35

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.34#127
2nd-level / open-field
1.03 / 0.78
Power / stuff (off)
83.3% / 23.1%
Havoc — total (def)
19.4%#38
Havoc — front 7 / DB
11.2% / 8.2%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.13
Def0.20
Pass downs
Off0.61
Def0.07

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.02#960.59#150.50#72
Defense0.07#990.24#910.19#38

Elo Trajectory

MaineFinal
Elo rating 1310 → 1325+15 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.3985th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1143rd
  • Offense success rate52%82nd
  • Defense success rate allowed40%36th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs50%55th
  • Offense success — passing downs54%97th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs49%20th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs16%96th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.361st
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.260th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.0039th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.939th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.934th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.749th
  • Offense highlight yards1.670th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.9439th
  • Offense power success0.5017th
  • Defense power success allowed0.4083rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.2033rd
  • Defense stuff rate0.2471st

Third down

  • Third down conversion36%31st
  • Third down distance faced7.818th
  • Third down conversion allowed32%69th
  • Third down distance forced8.485th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.0547th
  • Net success rate — second half0.1369th

Drives

  • Points per drive2.150th
  • Points per drive allowed1.863rd
  • Average starting field position3172nd
  • Opponent starting field position2391st
  • Available yards gained47%44th
  • Available yards allowed45%65th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive92%83rd
  • Scoring opportunities allowed69%77th
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.335th
  • Points allowed per opportunity2.757th
  • Three-and-out rate15%82nd
  • Three-and-outs forced38%84th

CORE

  • CORE offense0.4955th
  • CORE defense4.617th
  • CORE overall-4.128th

Roster

  • Returning usage52%63rd
  • Returning EPA10850th
  • Team talent composite62239th
  • Recruiting class rank59.058th
  • Recruiting class points19958th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.297#48 · above avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.656#17
Rush EPA/play
+0.072#95
Explosiveness
1.322#51
Pts/opportunity
4.32#57
Success rate
44.9%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.585 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.163#96 · below avg
Havoc rate (total)
19.4%#38
Front-7 havoc
11.2%
DB havoc
8.2%
Big play rate allowed
1.150#43
Success rate allowed
42.3%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

41.0 PPG offense, 13.5 allowed — +27.5 margin/game
Points per game
41.0
Points allowed/game
13.5
Scoring margin/game
+27.5
Turnover margin
+3won 4 · lost 1
Production returning
38%
Talent rank (247)
#85

2-0 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE66thEXPLOSIVENESS64thFINISHING59thFIELD POS39thDEFENSE31thHAVOC73th50th100th
Offense
66th
Explosiveness
64th
Finishing
59th
Field Pos
39th
Defense
31th
Havoc
73th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-12.8
#115
Offense
-4.3
#94
Defense
+8.6
#125
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 13 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive2.081.85
Starting field positionown 31.3own 22.8
Available yards46.6%44.6%
Scoring opportunities92.3%69.2%
Points per opportunity2.252.67
Three-and-out rate15.4%38.5%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
42.9%
Expected, given the spots
45.8%
Over expected
-2.9
Fourth down vs peers
-6
Fourth down vs the model
+0
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. App State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to App State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
North TexasSP+ -13.2
Off EPA/play +0.307Def EPA/play +0.169Elo 1590
Match
99%
Kennesaw StateSP+ -7.4
Off EPA/play +0.307Def EPA/play +0.154Elo 1373
Match
99%
Boise StateSP+ +5.2
Off EPA/play +0.296Def EPA/play +0.182Elo 1569
Match
99%
TexasSP+ +25.4
Off EPA/play +0.279Def EPA/play +0.149Elo 1913
Match
99%
UConnSP+ -6.3
Off EPA/play +0.303Def EPA/play +0.136Elo 1484
Match
98%
MemphisSP+ +2.1
Off EPA/play +0.297Def EPA/play +0.229Elo 1566
Match
96%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +13.0, #27 of 1282016: +13.8, #18 of 1282017: +5.5, #49 of 1302018: +12.8, #24 of 1302019: +10.2, #30 of 1302020: +16.7, #14 of 1242021: +15.1, #17 of 1302022: +1.0, #63 of 1312023: +3.3, #49 of 1332024: -13.3, #112 of 1342025: -18.4, #121 of 1362026: -12.8, #115 of 138
20152026
Now -12.8 · #115 of 138Best +16.7 in 2020Worst -18.4 in 2025

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20262-00-0
100%
1.7+0.3
20255-82-6
38%
5.3-0.3
20245-63-5
45%
4.6+0.4
20239-56-3
64%
9.7-0.7
20226-63-5
50%
7.1-1.1
202110-47-2
71%
11.3-1.3
20209-36-2
75%
8.7+0.3
201913-18-1
93%
10.6+2.4
201811-28-1
85%
10.9+0.1
20179-47-1
69%
9.4-0.4

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

1.8%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

1-0 so far, projected to finish 7.7-4.5. Wins the Sun Belt in 7.6%.

If they finish with…

85%
0 losses
25%
1 loss
0.7%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 0.

Win out and it is 85%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

up 1.4 points since preseason.

  • At 1 loss they are 25% where the average Sun Belt team is 36%.
  • The Sun Belt takes 0.20 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 1.8% of seasons, having won their league in 91% of those.

App State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk4at NC State5.9
  • wk8vs James Madison4.8
  • wk9at Georgia Southern3.6
  • wk13at South Alabama3.1
  • wk11at Marshall3.0
  • wk6vs Old Dominion3.0

Who to root for

Games App State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk9Texas State over Boise State0.9
  • wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.9
  • wk8Washington State over Boise State0.7
  • wk6Fresno State over Boise State0.7
  • wk13Air Force over New Mexico0.7
  • wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.7
The full playoff picture →

Sun Belt

East division · 0-0 in league play, projected 4.6-3.44 of 14 by title odds
7.6%
Wins the Sun Belt
15%
Reaches the title game

The Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so App State can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk8James Madison at App State18.8
  • wk9App State at Georgia Southern11.5
  • wk6Old Dominion at App State11.0
  • wk11App State at Marshall9.7

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →

If not the playoff, then

85%
Bowl eligible
82%
Placed in a bowl
1.8%
In the playoff
16%
Season over in November

App State is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.1% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Frisco Bowl15%
  • New Mexico Bowl11%
  • Cure Bowl10%
  • Boca Raton Bowl8.5%
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl8.0%
  • New Orleans Bowl8.0%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent App State a player since 2010 — 15 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of App State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
GraysonGA30
Miami NorthwesternFL30
WestsideSC21
EastsideGA20
NorcrossGA20
ConwayAR10
South Fort MyersFL10
TempleTX10
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.