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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Dallas Stars
▸4
FinalTV ABC, ESPN+·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-2. The Stars came back from two goals down. The Avalanche led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikko Rantanen's goal at 13:46 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 20% to 52%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.7, DAL 2.9; shots on goal were COL 27, DAL 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 15 of 18 (.833), 1.0 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (3 G, 1 A), 2. Wyatt Johnston (1 G), 3. Jake Oettinger (25 saves, .926).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Rantanen3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    W. Johnston1 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger25 saves, .926

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL0519113227
DALDAL040649419

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    J. Manson(2)SHG
    L. O'Connor (4)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +21 ptsVideo
    1-0
    9:50

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(7)
    R. Lindgren (3), V. Nichushkin (1)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    0:31
  2. DAL
    M. Rantanen(3)
    O. Bäck (2), I. Lyubushkin (2)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-1
    7:49
  3. DAL
    M. Rantanen(4)PPG
    T. Harley (3), M. Duchene (2)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.07win prob +32 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:46
  4. DAL
    W. Johnston(3)PPG
    M. Duchene (3), M. Rantanen (7)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +31 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:04
  5. DAL
    M. Rantanen(5)EN
    T. Seguin (2), E. Lindell (1)
    snapxG 0.92win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-4
    19:57

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:15COLParker Kelly · Holdingdrawn by Ilya Lyubushkin2 min
  • 8:28DALJamie Benn · High sticking double minordrawn by Valeri Nichushkin4 min

2nd

  • 9:06COLSam Malinski · Interferencedrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

3rd

  • 10:49DALMatt Duchene · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 12:02COLCale Makar · Trippingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 15:47COLJack Drury · Holdingdrawn by Tyler Seguin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Mikko Rantanen, 3rd 13:46 — DAL 20% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.92T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.28E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.17E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.16M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.14W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.12M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.09T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.09S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.08M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.08M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.07W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.07J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.07J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.07R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.03T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.03M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.03E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.03W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.02T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.01M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.01L. Bichsel · On goal · xG 0.01A. Petrovic · Missed · xG 0.01M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.01S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 2.9 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
2.72 G
All situations
3 G2.9
1.21 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
1.30 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.11 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL62%38%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.68 – 2.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
27
Shots on goal
19
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/3
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
27
Hits
25
13
Blocked shots
14
17
Giveaways
12
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000-110.32112—26:42
29N. MacKinnonC101060.600004422:24
7D. ToewsD000000.06100—22:15
92G. LandeskogL000020.092005020:20
88M. NecasC000-130.34000020:17
62A. LehkonenL000-100.05210—20:10
13V. NichushkinR011-110.22420—19:19
42J. MansonD101+140.18210—18:54
11B. NelsonC000-120.140105317:51
55R. LindgrenD011+100.00100—16:23
49S. GirardD000000.01020—14:54
70S. MalinskiD000000.00112—13:45
25L. O'ConnorR011+130.30100—13:42
17P. KellyC000+100.00622013:34
18J. DruryC000010.101025711:47
10C. CoyleC000020.112105609:11
27J. DrouinL000010.1001010007:45
94J. KivirantaL000010.09300—06:57
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(L)18153.8332.02-0.9857:49

Series

DAL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).