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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Dallas Stars
1
FinalTV TNT, truTV·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 5-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Artturi Lehkonen's goal at 9:30 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 66%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.5 to 2.8; shots on goal were COL 25, DAL 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mackenzie Blackwood (23 saves, .958), 3. Logan O'Connor (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Blackwood23 saves, .958
  3. ★★★
    COL
    L. O'Connor2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL0112836525
DALDAL090916124

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(1)
    N. MacKinnon (1), M. Necas (1)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-0
    9:30
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(1)PPG
    C. Makar (1), J. Drouin (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-0
    16:38

3rd period

  1. DAL
    R. Hintz(1)PPG
    T. Harley (1), W. Johnston (1)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    6:45
  2. COL
    D. Toews(1)
    J. Manson (1), L. O'Connor (1)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-1
    12:56
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(2)EN
    L. O'Connor (2), R. Lindgren (1)
    wristxG 0.47win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-1
    16:52
  4. COL
    C. Coyle(1)
    J. Drury (1), P. Kelly (1)
    snapxG 0.32Video
    5-1
    17:03

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·DAL 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:02DALMason Marchment · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 4:38DALWyatt Johnston · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 7:49COLJosh Manson · Holdingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

2nd

  • 6:18COLRyan Lindgren · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:20DALRoope Hintz · High sticking double minordrawn by Nathan MacKinnon4 min

3rd

  • 4:49COLJosh Manson · Interferencedrawn by Mason Marchment2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen, 2nd 9:30 — COL 47% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.28M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.26W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.22R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.21J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.20T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.15T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.09M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.08W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.08S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.08T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.08M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.07J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.06M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.06A. Petrovic · On goal · xG 0.06M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.05E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.03T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.03W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.02C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.02M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.01I. Lyubushkin · Missed · xG 0.01E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.01
DAL1 G · 2.8 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
3.54 G
All situations
1 G2.8
2.33 G
Even strength
0 G1.5
0.81 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL54%46%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.00 – 2.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
25
Shots on goal
24
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
30
Hits
18
15
Blocked shots
22
16
Giveaways
12
1
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD101+130.39030—24:19
8C. MakarD011+110.38020—23:24
88M. NecasC011+100.034005020:26
13V. NichushkinR000010.24300—20:12
29N. MacKinnonC213+271.001104320:10
55R. LindgrenD011+100.00402—18:25
62A. LehkonenL101+120.33210—18:01
27J. DrouinL011000.06120—17:48
49S. GirardD000+230.03200—17:15
42J. MansonD011+210.03104—16:50
11B. NelsonC000+110.010403315:36
6E. JohnsonD000+110.04300—14:00
25L. O'ConnorR022+200.00200—13:52
10C. CoyleC101+110.321006413:14
18J. DruryC011+100.030007311:38
94J. KivirantaL000+210.01110—10:58
17P. KellyC011+120.56210010:52
20R. ColtonC000010.0330010007:04
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(W)24231.9582.81+1.8160:00

Series

DAL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).