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Stars at Avalanche
NHL

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
4
Colorado Avalanche
▸7
FinalTV TBS, MAX·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 7-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Stars led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 9:04 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 5.3 to 2.0; shots on goal were DAL 26, COL 48. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 82% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 41 of 46 (.891), 0.8 goals below expected; Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Martin Necas (1 G, 1 A), 2. Roope Hintz (2 G, 2 A), 3. Valeri Nichushkin (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Necas1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    R. Hintz2 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    V. Nichushkin2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL0104907426
COLCOL219116413748

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(2)
    B. Nelson (3), G. Landeskog (2)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    6:29
  2. COL
    A. Lehkonen(3)
    C. Makar (3), M. Necas (4)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    18:40

2nd period

  1. DAL
    R. Hintz(3)PPG
    M. Rantanen (4), W. Johnston (4)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:18
  2. DAL
    M. Granlund(1)
    R. Hintz (2), M. Rantanen (5)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    3:41
  3. COL
    M. Necas(1)
    C. Makar (4), D. Toews (3)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-3
    4:34
  4. DAL
    R. Hintz(4)
    M. Rantanen (6)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-3
    7:51
  5. DAL
    M. Rantanen(2)
    R. Hintz (3), C. Ceci (3)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +23 ptsVideo
    4-3
    18:35

3rd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(3)
    G. Landeskog (3), B. Nelson (4)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +28 ptsVideo
    4-4
    6:02
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(6)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +30 ptsVideo
    4-5
    9:04
  3. COL
    J. Manson(1)EN
    N. MacKinnon (3)
    snapxG 0.55win prob +6 ptsVideo
    4-6
    18:44
  4. COL
    C. Makar(1)EN
    N. MacKinnon (4)
    wristxG 0.52Video
    4-7
    19:03

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·COL 2 PIM

2nd

  • 0:55COLBrock Nelson · Trippingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 19:03DALThomas Harley · High stickingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min

3rd

  • 12:32DALMikael Granlund · Interferencedrawn by Cale Makar2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDAL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 3rd 9:04 — COL 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Manson · Goal · xG 0.55C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.52V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.32A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.31M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.25C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.18C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.18J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.16M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.13G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.12A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.10J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.10A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.09A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.09C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.09D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.09L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.08R. Lindgren · On goal · xG 0.08C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.07M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.07J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.07P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.07J. Kiviranta · Missed · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.06C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.06G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.06C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.05B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.05A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.05C. Coyle · Missed · xG 0.05M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.03M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.03G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.03J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02R. Lindgren · On goal · xG 0.02S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.02M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.02S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.02J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.02G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.01R. Lindgren · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01C. Coyle · On goal · xG 0.01S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.01J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.00S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.00G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.00
COL7 G · 5.3 xG · 70 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCOL
2.04 G
All situations
5 G5.3
1.53 G
Even strength
5 G3.9
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 110 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL18%82%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 4.17

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCOL
26
Shots on goal
48
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
19
Hits
46
17
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
12
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55T. HarleyD000-320.08332—26:42
23E. LindellD000010.01020—25:11
44C. CeciD011+210.04050—23:51
46I. LyubushkinD000-510.01110—19:14
53W. JohnstonC011-530.150003317:39
96M. RantanenR134020.26300—17:33
95M. DucheneC000-200.110107817:14
64M. GranlundC101020.2310210017:03
24R. HintzC224050.600204216:41
28A. PetrovicD000010.07110—15:30
91T. SeguinC000020.212004315:23
27M. MarchmentL000020.03300—15:05
10O. BäckC000-100.0011010013:55
18S. SteelC000-110.111005013:48
63E. DadonovL000-310.01010—12:39
14J. BennL000-310.061004412:38
15C. BlackwellC000-100.012006010:02
6L. BichselD000010.01000—07:35
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)46415.8914.24-0.7658:17

Series

DAL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).