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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Dallas Stars
▸6
FinalTV ESPN, Victory+·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 6-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 14:38 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 12% to 27%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 5.3 to 3.3; shots on goal were COL 28, DAL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 13 of 18 (.722), 2.1 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Wyatt Johnston (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 2 A), 3. Jake Oettinger (26 saves, .929).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    W. Johnston2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger26 saves, .929

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL0928011228
DALDAL2731119627

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    W. Johnston(1)
    E. Dadonov (1), C. Ceci (2)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:09
  2. DAL
    T. Harley(2)
    W. Johnston (3)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    19:15

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Rantanen(1)
    R. Hintz (1), I. Lyubushkin (1)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    1:12
  2. COL
    A. Lehkonen(2)
    M. Necas (2), N. MacKinnon (2)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-3
    12:11
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(5)
    D. Toews (2), M. Necas (3)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    14:38
  4. DAL
    W. Johnston(2)PPG
    M. Duchene (1), M. Rantanen (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-4
    16:48
  5. DAL
    M. Marchment(1)
    A. Petrovic (1), T. Seguin (1)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +7 ptsVideo
    2-5
    18:32

3rd period

  1. DAL
    R. Hintz(2)EN
    M. Rantanen (3)
    wristxG 0.48Video
    2-6
    17:55

Penalties

COL 34 PIM·DAL 32 PIM

1st

  • 9:23COLParker Kelly · Hookingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 11:24DALRoope Hintz · Interferencedrawn by Sam Malinski2 min

2nd

  • 2:43DALEvgenii Dadonov · Trippingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 8:45COLCharlie Coyle · Slashingdrawn by Tyler Seguin2 min
  • 16:00COLSam Malinski · Elbowingdrawn by Sam Steel2 min

3rd

  • 5:27COLJosh Manson · High stickingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 9:39DALLian Bichsel · Cross checkingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 9:53DALEsa Lindell · Roughingdrawn by Artturi Lehkonen2 min
  • 9:53COLArtturi Lehkonen · Roughingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min
  • 18:58DALLian Bichsel · Roughingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 18:58COLParker Kelly · Roughingdrawn by Lian Bichsel2 min
  • 18:58DALSam Steel · Roughingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 18:58COLLogan O'Connor · Roughingdrawn by Sam Steel2 min
  • 18:58DALLian Bichsel · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:58COLLogan O'Connor · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:58DALSam Steel · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:58COLParker Kelly · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 2nd 14:38 — COL 12% → 27%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.48E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.47T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.39W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.37M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.25R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.22M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.21R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.20W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.20M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.20R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.16R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.16T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.14T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.14J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.14J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.13E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marchment · Goal · xG 0.11M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.11E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.09W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.09M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.08T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.07M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.07C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.05T. Harley · Goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.04W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04O. Bäck · Missed · xG 0.04E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.02T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.01C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.01L. Bichsel · Missed · xG 0.01E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.00J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.00I. Lyubushkin · Missed · xG 0.00C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL6 G · 5.3 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
3.32 G
All situations
5 G5.3
2.42 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.90 G
Power play
1 G1.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL39%61%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.26 – 3.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
28
Shots on goal
27
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/3
Power play
1/4
34
Penalty minutes
32
51
Hits
29
17
Blocked shots
21
13
Giveaways
15
8
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000-340.22000—25:50
7D. ToewsD011-210.06140—21:01
29N. MacKinnonC112070.911104820:56
88M. NecasC022+110.2250010018:40
62A. LehkonenL101010.17402—18:20
92G. LandeskogL000-110.281002018:17
42J. MansonD000020.04412—17:40
55R. LindgrenD000000.02330—17:14
13V. NichushkinR000-310.26300—16:31
49S. GirardD000000.00010—15:06
70S. MalinskiD000010.04312—14:41
11B. NelsonC000-220.522003014:25
27J. DrouinL000-320.10100—14:07
10C. CoyleC000-210.029125414:03
18J. DruryC000000.003005513:18
25L. O'ConnorR000-110.042312—13:03
17P. KellyC000020.345114011:05
94J. KivirantaL000010.08410—10:25
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(L)18135.7222.85-2.1540:00
41S. Wedgewood8801.0001.17+1.1718:30

Series

DAL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).