Kraken at Avalanche 3-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Seattle Kraken

▸3

Colorado Avalanche

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Recap

written from the game data

The Seattle Kraken beat the Colorado Avalanche 3-2. The Kraken scored first and never trailed. The Kraken led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tye Kartye's goal at 9:59 of the second period, which took the Kraken's chances from 47% to 66%. Expected goals were close — SEA 2.2, COL 2.1; shots on goal were SEA 29, COL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Kraken win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 26 of 28 (.929); Alexandar Georgiev stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tye Kartye (1 G), 2. Morgan Geekie (1 G), 3. Yanni Gourde (1 G).

Three stars

★
T. Kartye1 G
★★
M. Geekie1 G
★★★
Y. Gourde1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	015	26	18	329
COL	08	110	110	228

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

M. Geekie(2)
J. Schwartz (3), A. Wennberg (3)
wristxG 0.17win prob +18 pts
1-0
6:35
N. MacKinnon(3)
M. Rantanen (2)
deflectedxG 0.24win prob +18 pts
1-1
7:55
T. Kartye(1)
J. Eberle (2), W. Borgen (1)
snapxG 0.17win prob +19 pts
2-1
9:59

3rd period

Y. Gourde(1)
C. Soucy (1), O. Bjorkstrand (2)
tip-inxG 0.10win prob +18 pts
3-1
1:40
E. Rodrigues(1)
D. Toews (4), N. MacKinnon (3)
slapxG 0.04win prob +8 pts
3-2
16:23

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

10:42Jack Johnson · Interferencedrawn by Brandon Tanev2 min
19:03Jaden Schwartz · Trippingdrawn by Artturi Lehkonen2 min

2nd

2:59Logan O'Connor · Interferencedrawn by Vince Dunn2 min
18:50Eeli Tolvanen · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: COL

Biggest swing: Tye Kartye, 2nd 9:59 — SEA 47% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.1 xG · 40 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.2 xG · 43 att COL

2 G · 2.1 xG · 40 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.23 G
All situations: 2 G2.1; 2.13 G
Even strength: 2 G1.4; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

53%47%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.23 – 2.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 28; 40%
Faceoffs: 60%; 0/2
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 39
Hits: 41; 14
Blocked shots: 20; 6
Giveaways: 13; 5
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Seattle Kraken skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
6A. LarssonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	1	0	—	25:20
24J. OleksiakD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	4	5	0	—	23:48
37Y. GourdeC	1	0	1	0	3	0.29	4	1	0	53	22:14
29V. DunnD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.07	2	1	0	—	20:41
21A. WennbergC	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	23	20:07
20E. TolvanenR	0	0	0	0	5	0.57	9	1	2	—	19:49
3W. BorgenD	0	1	1	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	18:46
17J. SchwartzL	0	1	1	0	4	0.27	0	1	2	67	17:52
22O. BjorkstrandR	0	1	1	0	3	0.12	1	0	0	50	17:33
13B. TanevL	0	0	0	-1	3	0.12	4	0	0	—	16:50
10M. BeniersC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.19	0	1	0	42	15:36
7J. EberleR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.06	0	1	0	—	14:54
4J. SchultzD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	14:38
28C. SoucyD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	3	1	0	—	13:15
67M. GeekieC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.26	1	0	0	33	11:27
52T. KartyeL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.17	3	0	0	—	08:41
9R. DonatoC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	100	07:43
91D. SprongR	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	0	0	0	—	06:46

Seattle Kraken goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31P. Grubauer(W)	28	26	2	.929	2.08	+0.08	60:00

Series

SEA leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Seattle Kraken at Colorado Avalanche

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score