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San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames

FinalTV SNW, SN1·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the San Jose Sharks 3-1. The Sharks scored first; the Flames answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Zadorov's goal at 4:01 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 52% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.7 to 2.1; shots on goal were SJS 24, CGY 49. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 46 of 48 (.958), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Dustin Wolf stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Zadorov (3 G), 2. Dustin Wolf (23 saves, .958), 3. Matt Coronato.

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    N. Zadorov3 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    D. Wolf23 saves, .958
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Coronato

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
SJSSJS1904011124
CGYCGY014112223349

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. SJS
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    10:26

2nd period

  1. CGY
    snapxG 0.17win prob +20 pts
    1-1
    13:36

3rd period

  1. CGY
    M. Weegar (27), N. Kadri (32)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +26 pts
    1-2
    4:01
  2. CGY
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.52win prob +6 pts
    1-3
    19:00

Penalties

SJS 2 PIM·CGY 4 PIM

1st

  • 18:43CGYMatt Coronato · Hookingdrawn by Tristen Robins2 min

2nd

  • 3:36CGYMilan Lucic · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 6:16SJSFabian Zetterlund · Holdingdrawn by Milan Lucic2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalSJS goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Nikita Zadorov, 3rd 4:01 — CGY 52% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Zadorov · Goal · xG 0.52A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.19D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.17N. Zadorov · Goal · xG 0.17D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.16B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.14M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.12J. Pelletier · On goal · xG 0.12M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.11J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.10T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.10M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.09E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.09J. Pelletier · On goal · xG 0.09A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.08J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.08T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.08T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.07T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.07M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.07M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.06M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.06T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.04T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.04B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.04J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.04N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.04N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.04N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.03M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.03M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.03J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.03M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.03D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.03M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · Goal · xG 0.02M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.02T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.01M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.01T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.01M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.01B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.01A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.01T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.01
CGY3 G · 3.7 xG · 61 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

SJSvsCGY
2.11 G
All situations
2 G3.7
1.61 G
Even strength
2 G2.9
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
SJS32%68%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.09 – 3.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

SJSvsCGY
24
Shots on goal
49
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
14
23
Blocked shots
17
8
Giveaways
16
4
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
San Jose Sharks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65E. KarlssonD000-230.09000—23:57
3H. ThrunD000-210.04020—21:58
16S. LorentzC000-210.164005921:40
5M. BenningD000-100.12020—20:13
38M. FerraroD000-110.01120—19:56
48T. HertlC000-210.100005518:25
24J. PetersonC000-330.29210017:22
39L. CoutureC000-260.91000017:05
73N. GregorL101+130.21220—15:14
51R. SimekD011+110.06050—15:05
62K. LabancR000030.07100—14:49
9J. MacDonaldD000000.00110—14:48
71N. KnyzhovD000+100.00110—14:47
7N. SturmC000+100.001403814:43
20F. ZetterlundL000+100.00102—13:51
10E. SvechnikovL000-100.08110—12:27
17T. BordeleauC000010.0000010011:41
52T. RobinsC000000.000205611:33
San Jose Sharks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36K. Kahkonen(L)48462.9583.18+1.1858:26

Season series

CGY leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).