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Lightning at Panthers
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸8
Florida Panthers
4
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·FLA Live Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Florida Panthers 8-4. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Paul's goal at 12:59 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 65% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.2 to 3.6; shots on goal were TBL 33, FLA 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 35 of 39 (.897); Spencer Knight stopped 12 of 17 (.706), 2.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (2 G, 3 A), 2. Nick Paul (2 G), 3. Sam Reinhart (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Paul2 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Reinhart2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL31228313833
FLAFLA211114114439

Scoring

12 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(22)
    P. Maroon (15), R. McDonagh (21)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:37
  2. FLA
    S. Reinhart(30)
    A. Lundell (26), N. Acciari (5)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    4:31
  3. TBL
    S. Stamkos(36)PPG
    V. Hedman (58), N. Kucherov (37)
    slapxG 0.17win prob +9 pts
    2-1
    6:44
  4. TBL
    C. Foote(2)
    B. Hagel (18), S. Stamkos (59)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    14:58
  5. FLA
    B. Montour(11)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    17:28

2nd period

  1. FLA
    M. Marchment(18)
    C. Giroux (42), M. Weegar (36)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    3-3
    0:59
  2. TBL
    N. Paul(15)SHG
    B. Hagel (19)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +18 pts
    4-3
    5:28
  3. TBL
    N. Paul(16)
    A. Killorn (34), V. Hedman (59)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +20 pts
    5-3
    12:59

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(28)PPG
    N. Kucherov (38), V. Hedman (60)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +5 pts
    6-3
    3:34
  2. FLA
    S. Reinhart(31)PPG
    J. Huberdeau (85), C. Giroux (43)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +4 pts
    6-4
    7:04
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(23)
    S. Stamkos (60), V. Hedman (61)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +4 pts
    7-4
    11:36
  4. TBL
    S. Stamkos(37)PPG
    N. Kucherov (39), B. Point (30)
    snapxG 0.19
    8-4
    16:34

Penalties

TBL 24 PIM·FLA 66 PIM

1st

  • 6:28FLAEetu Luostarinen · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 9:55TBLZach Bogosian · Interferencedrawn by Anthony Duclair2 min
  • 12:41TBLBrandon Hagel · Roughingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
  • 17:50FLAAleksander Barkov · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

2nd

  • 1:39TBLErik Cernak · Roughingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
  • 4:18TBLRoss Colton · Slashingdrawn by Noel Acciari2 min
  • 6:33FLAMason Marchment · Slashingdrawn by Andrei Vasilevskiy2 min
  • 10:52TBLNikita Kucherov · Holdingdrawn by Gustav Forsling2 min
  • 13:42FLASam Bennett · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 13:42TBLMikhail Sergachev · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 13:42FLASam Bennett · Fightingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev5 min
  • 13:42TBLMikhail Sergachev · Fightingdrawn by Sam Bennett5 min
  • 13:42FLAPatric Hornqvist · Roughingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 16:42FLAAleksander Barkov · Hookingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min

3rd

  • 3:16FLAserved by M. Marchment · Bench2 min
  • 6:50TBLBrayden Point · Holdingdrawn by Eetu Luostarinen2 min
  • 16:24TBLErik Cernak · Fightingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg5 min
  • 16:24FLARyan Lomberg · Fightingdrawn by Erik Cernak5 min
  • 16:24FLARyan Lomberg · Instigatordrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 16:24FLARyan Lomberg · Game misconduct10 min
  • 16:24FLARyan Lomberg · Misconductdrawn by Erik Cernak10 min
  • 16:24FLAJonathan Huberdeau · Game misconduct10 min
  • 16:24FLAMason Marchment · Game misconduct10 min
  • 16:24FLAserved by B. Montour · Game misconduct head coach0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTBL goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Nick Paul, 2nd 12:59 — TBL 65% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.22B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.16M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.16A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.14A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.14P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.14G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.14S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.14C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.13N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.11S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.11M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.10N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.08R. Hagg · Missed · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.08J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.07A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.07C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.07A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.06S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.06A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.06S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.06B. Montour · Goal · xG 0.05A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.05J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.05P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marchment · Goal · xG 0.05G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.05A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.05M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.04B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.04S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.03P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.03N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.03R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.02P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hagg · Missed · xG 0.02N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.02A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.01J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.01R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.01S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.01P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA4 G · 3.6 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsFLA
4.28 G
All situations
4 G3.6
2.24 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
1.53 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.51 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 104 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL60%40%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.20 – 3.51

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsFLA
33
Shots on goal
39
52%
Faceoffs
48%
3/7
Power play
1/6
24
Penalty minutes
66
29
Hits
35
21
Blocked shots
13
8
Giveaways
21
8
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27R. McDonaghD011+220.09250—25:04
77V. HedmanD044+130.28200—24:27
17A. KillornL011030.31000—22:39
21B. PointC112-120.390226921:35
81E. CernakD000000.00317—20:06
86N. KucherovR235+250.72302—19:00
20N. PaulL202+220.280304617:01
91S. StamkosC224030.501006416:35
38B. HagelL022+130.59112—15:10
41P. BellemareL000+100.004202015:07
10C. PerryR000010.21110—14:21
18O. PalatL000-110.09000—13:45
52C. FooteD101+320.18030—12:23
98M. SergachevD000020.32237—12:16
14P. MaroonL011+100.00500—11:17
79R. ColtonC000030.250025011:10
24Z. BogosianD000-200.00302—10:02
44J. RuttaD000010.01200—07:48
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)39354.8973.56-0.4460:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).