Lightning at Islanders 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸2

New York Islanders

FinalTV USA, CBC·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Islanders 2-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cal Clutterbuck's goal at 17:01 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 30% to 53%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.6 to 1.7; shots on goal were TBL 25, NYI 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (27 saves, .964), 2. Brayden Point (1 G), 3. Cal Clutterbuck (1 G).

Three stars

★
A. Vasilevskiy27 saves, .964
★★
B. Point1 G
★★★
C. Clutterbuck1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	111	19	05	225
NYI	07	113	08	128

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

Y. Gourde(3)
B. Coleman (5), E. Cernak (7)
wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
1-0
10:05

2nd period

C. Clutterbuck(4)
M. Martin (1), C. Cizikas (3)
tip-inxG 0.15win prob +22 pts
1-1
17:01
B. Point(11)
V. Hedman (13), N. Kucherov (18)
wristxG 0.22win prob +22 pts
2-1
19:40

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

14:28Mikhail Sergachev · Roughingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min
17:38Adam Pelech · Interferencedrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Cal Clutterbuck, 2nd 17:01 — NYI 30% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.6 xG · 41 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.7 xG · 37 att NYI

1 G · 2.6 xG · 41 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.72 G
All situations: 1 G2.6; 1.62 G
Even strength: 1 G2.4; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

34%66%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.67 – 2.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 28; 53%
Faceoffs: 47%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 26
Hits: 39; 21
Blocked shots: 15; 14
Giveaways: 16; 7
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
77V. HedmanD	0	1	1	+1	3	0.21	1	4	0	—	26:38
27R. McDonaghD	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	1	3	0	—	24:25
86N. KucherovR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	19:53
81E. CernakD	0	1	1	0	2	0.03	1	1	0	—	19:44
98M. SergachevD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	3	2	—	19:32
21B. PointC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.29	0	0	0	50	19:10
18O. PalatL	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	1	3	0	—	18:19
19B. GoodrowC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	0	0	0	17:23
71A. CirelliC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.14	3	1	0	43	16:43
37Y. GourdeC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.27	0	0	0	73	16:07
20B. ColemanL	0	1	1	0	2	0.12	1	1	0	—	15:51
17A. KillornL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	2	1	0	—	15:19
91S. StamkosC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	0	60	14:26
44J. RuttaD	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	1	0	0	—	14:20
58D. SavardD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	2	0	—	13:33
14P. MaroonL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	09:27
9T. JohnsonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	1	0	0	0	08:45
79R. ColtonC	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	4	0	0	100	08:10

Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)	28	27	1	.964	2.56	+1.56	60:00

Series

TBL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

1st period

2nd period

2nd

Box score