Islanders at Lightning 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

New York Islanders

▸2

Tampa Bay Lightning

FinalTV NBC, CBC·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathew Barzal's goal at 12:32 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.9 to 2.5; shots on goal were NYI 31, TBL 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mathew Barzal (1 G), 2. Semyon Varlamov (30 saves, .968), 3. Brayden Point (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Barzal1 G
★★
S. Varlamov30 saves, .968
★★★
B. Point1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	014	19	18	231
TBL	011	09	111	131

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

M. Barzal(4)
J. Bailey (7)
wristxG 0.25win prob +20 pts
1-0
12:32

3rd period

R. Pulock(4)
J. Eberle (6)
slapxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
2-0
5:36
B. Point(9)PPG
A. Killorn (7), N. Kucherov (14)
wristxG 0.17win prob +5 pts
2-1
19:06

Penalties

6 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

0:08Barclay Goodrow · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Matt Martin2 min
0:08Matt Martin · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Barclay Goodrow2 min
3:22Ryan McDonagh · Trippingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
9:21Barclay Goodrow · Roughingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min

2nd

16:41Erik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
19:23Kyle Palmieri · Interferencedrawn by Erik Cernak2 min

3rd

18:22Brock Nelson · High stickingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TBL

Biggest swing: Mathew Barzal, 2nd 12:32 — NYI 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.9 xG · 42 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.5 xG · 37 att TBL

1 G · 2.9 xG · 42 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.52 G
All situations: 1 G2.9; 2.32 G
Even strength: 0 G1.6; 0.20 G
Power play: 1 G0.8; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

43%57%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.55 – 2.92

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 31; 61%
Faceoffs: 39%; 0/3
Power play: 1/2; 6
Penalty minutes: 8; 40
Hits: 41; 13
Blocked shots: 8; 1
Giveaways: 7; 6
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	2	0	—	23:28
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	3	4	0	—	22:43
6R. PulockD	1	0	1	+2	3	0.12	3	1	0	—	21:33
2N. LeddyD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	1	0	—	21:01
44J. PageauC	0	0	0	0	2	0.19	3	0	0	67	19:21
18A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	+1	5	0.54	1	1	0	—	16:39
29B. NelsonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	1	0	2	43	16:27
4A. GreeneD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	0	0	0	—	15:50
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	5	1	0	—	15:29
13M. BarzalC	1	0	1	+2	3	0.39	1	0	0	0	15:02
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	2	1	0	63	14:52
14T. ZajacC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	4	0	0	0	14:21
12J. BaileyR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.28	1	0	0	—	13:57
21K. PalmieriC	0	0	0	0	2	0.28	0	0	2	0	13:41
7J. EberleR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.20	0	0	0	—	13:37
47L. KomarovR	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	4	1	0	50	13:02
8N. DobsonD	0	0	0	0	3	0.07	2	1	0	—	12:24
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6	0	2	—	11:10

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40S. Varlamov(W)	31	30	1	.968	2.93	+1.93	60:00

Series

TBL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score