Avalanche at Kings 3-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Colorado Avalanche

▸3

Los Angeles Kings

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Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Los Angeles Kings 3-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Devon Toews's goal at 9:45 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 66% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.6 to 1.7; shots on goal were COL 30, LAK 18. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 16 of 18 (.889); Cal Petersen stopped 27 of 30 (.900). Three stars: 1. Devon Toews (2 G), 2. Cale Makar (1 G, 1 A), 3. Rasmus Kupari (1 G).

Three stars

★
D. Toews2 G
★★
C. Makar1 G, 1 A
★★★
R. Kupari1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	212	114	04	330
LAK	16	05	17	218

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

D. Toews(8)
A. Burakovsky (22), J. Compher (8)
wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
1-0
4:46
C. Makar(8)PPG
M. Rantanen (31), A. Burakovsky (23)
slapxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
2-0
10:31
S. Walker(4)
G. Vilardi (12), A. Iafallo (17)
wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
2-1
13:58

2nd period

D. Toews(9)
C. Makar (35), P. Bellemare (2)
snapxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
3-1
9:45

3rd period

R. Kupari(1)
L. Andersson (3), S. Walker (13)
snapxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
3-2
5:21

Penalties

4 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

9:20Brendan Lemieux · Trippingdrawn by Jayson Megna2 min
15:54Alex Newhook · Slashingdrawn by Olli Maatta2 min

2nd

11:03Drew Doughty · Slashingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

3rd

3:19Mikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Drew Doughty2 min
8:27Carl Grundstrom · Trippingdrawn by Alex Newhook2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: LAK

Biggest swing: Devon Toews, 2nd 9:45 — COL 66% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 1.7 xG · 30 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.6 xG · 38 att LAK

2 G · 1.7 xG · 30 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.63 G
All situations: 2 G1.7; 1.72 G
Even strength: 2 G1.4; 0.91 G
Power play: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 68 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

68%32%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.62 – 1.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 18; 42%
Faceoffs: 58%; 1/3
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 6; 30
Hits: 23; 13
Blocked shots: 12; 9
Giveaways: 7; 5
Takeaways: 1

Box score

every player line

Colorado Avalanche skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
7D. ToewsD	2	0	2	+2	2	0.19	0	2	0	—	25:08
8C. MakarD	1	1	2	+2	4	0.09	1	0	0	—	24:49
72J. DonskoiR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.16	1	1	0	—	20:39
27R. GravesD	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	1	2	0	—	19:32
13V. NichushkinR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.15	2	1	0	—	18:09
96M. RantanenR	0	1	1	-1	2	0.27	0	0	2	—	18:09
91N. KadriC	0	0	0	0	4	0.67	0	1	0	43	18:06
92G. LandeskogL	0	0	0	0	3	0.28	3	2	0	20	17:35
95A. BurakovskyL	0	2	2	+1	2	0.20	3	0	0	—	16:51
24P. NemethD	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	16:30
22C. TimminsD	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	1	0	—	16:13
17T. JostC	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	2	0	0	45	15:59
37J. CompherL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.15	1	0	0	40	15:33
18A. NewhookC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.18	1	1	2	33	14:17
26J. MacDonaldD	0	0	0	-2	2	0.03	1	0	0	—	12:27
12J. MegnaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	1	0	100	09:22
41P. BellemareL	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	60	09:16
44K. SherwoodL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6	1	0	—	07:32

Colorado Avalanche goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35J. Johansson(W)	18	16	2	.889	1.71	-0.29	59:53

Season series

COL leads 7-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score