Devils at Islanders 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New Jersey Devils

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New York Islanders

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Recap

written from the game data

The New Jersey Devils beat the New York Islanders 2-1. The Devils scored first and never trailed. The Devils led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael McLeod's goal at 15:31 of the second period, which took the Devils' chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.5 to 1.5; shots on goal were NJD 25, NYI 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Michael McLeod (1 G), 2. Pavel Zacha (1 G), 3. Anthony Beauvillier (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. McLeod1 G
★★
P. Zacha1 G
★★★
A. Beauvillier1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	112	18	05	225
NYI	08	112	013	133

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

P. Zacha(16)
J. Bratt (22), N. Hischier (4)
wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
1-0
14:11

2nd period

A. Beauvillier(15)
S. Mayfield (13), B. Nelson (15)
tip-inxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
1-1
5:35
M. McLeod(9)
D. Severson (18), R. Murray (14)
tip-inxG 0.11win prob +22 pts
2-1
15:31

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

5:49Braydon Coburn · Cross checkingdrawn by Jesper Boqvist2 min
7:22Damon Severson · Hookingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
20:00Michael McLeod · High stickingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Michael McLeod, 2nd 15:31 — NJD 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.5 xG · 42 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.5 xG · 30 att NYI

1 G · 2.5 xG · 42 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.52 G
All situations: 1 G2.5; 1.42 G
Even strength: 1 G1.8; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.7; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

30%70%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.49 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 33; 39%
Faceoffs: 61%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 16
Hits: 33; 24
Blocked shots: 19; 9
Giveaways: 5; 5
Takeaways: 2

Box score

every player line

New Jersey Devils skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
22R. MurrayD	0	1	1	+2	1	0.02	0	5	0	—	21:12
8W. ButcherD	0	0	0	-1	4	0.20	0	2	0	—	21:05
28D. SeversonD	0	1	1	+2	3	0.17	1	2	2	—	20:28
7M. TennysonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	2	0	—	19:07
88K. BahlD	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	3	3	0	—	18:44
86J. HughesC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	50	18:41
5C. CarrickD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.05	1	2	0	—	18:16
13N. HischierC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.04	1	2	0	29	18:03
17Y. SharangovichC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.09	0	0	0	100	17:15
20M. McLeodC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.11	4	2	2	69	15:51
14N. BastianR	0	0	0	+1	2	0.06	4	1	0	—	15:45
90J. BoqvistC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.24	0	1	0	0	15:36
59J. KuokkanenC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.12	0	0	0	0	15:22
37P. ZachaC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.09	0	1	0	0	14:55
63J. BrattL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	0	1	0	—	14:38
67M. StudenicR	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	2	0	0	—	10:38
12T. ThompsonR	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	0	0	—	10:24
25N. FooteL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	10:00

New Jersey Devils goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29M. Blackwood(W)	33	32	1	.970	2.54	+1.54	60:00

Season series

NYI leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders

1st period

2nd period

2nd

Box score