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Sabres at Flyers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
Philadelphia Flyers
3
FinalTV NHLN, NBCSP·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-3. The Sabres came back from two goals down. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Rasmus Asplund's goal at 17:22 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 48% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 3.4 to 2.7; shots on goal were BUF 31, PHI 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 40 of 43 (.930); Carter Hart stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Rasmus Asplund (1 G), 2. Jeff Skinner (1 G, 1 A), 3. Shayne Gostisbehere (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. Asplund1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    S. Gostisbehere1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF08212311531
PHIPHI215012116343

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    O. Lindblom(6)
    S. Gostisbehere (7), N. Aube-Kubel (7)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    11:36
  2. PHI
    J. Farabee(15)PPG
    N. Patrick (4), S. Couturier (18)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    14:14

2nd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(14)
    J. Skinner (3)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    3:56
  2. BUF
    A. Ruotsalainen(1)
    D. Cozens (3)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    4:42

3rd period

  1. PHI
    S. Gostisbehere(8)
    J. Farabee (15), P. Myers (7)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +26 pts
    2-3
    3:47
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(5)
    V. Olofsson (13), J. Bryson (4)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +39 pts
    3-3
    16:57
  3. BUF
    R. Asplund(5)
    J. Bryson (5)
    backhandxG 0.35win prob +43 pts
    4-3
    17:22
  4. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(6)EN
    K. Okposo (11), R. Sheahan (7)
    wristxG 0.47win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:36

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·PHI 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:42PHIClaude Giroux · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min
  • 12:15BUFArttu Ruotsalainen · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 16:58PHIPhilippe Myers · Holdingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

3rd

  • 5:08PHINicolas Aube-Kubel · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 11:40PHIRobert Hagg · Roughingdrawn by Colin Miller2 min
  • 11:40BUFColin Miller · Roughingdrawn by Robert Hagg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalBUF goalFinal: PHI 0%

Biggest swing: Rasmus Asplund, 3rd 17:22 — BUF 48% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.34J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.22K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.15N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.14O. Lindblom · Goal · xG 0.13J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.13S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.12J. Farabee · Goal · xG 0.12S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.12N. Aube-Kubel · Missed · xG 0.11S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.11J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.10I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.10K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.08N. Patrick · On goal · xG 0.07J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.07N. Patrick · On goal · xG 0.07S. Gostisbehere · Goal · xG 0.06S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.06J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.06J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.06T. Laczynski · Missed · xG 0.06J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.05T. Laczynski · On goal · xG 0.05C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.05S. Couturier · Missed · xG 0.05T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.04T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.04J. Braun · On goal · xG 0.04J. Voracek · Missed · xG 0.04S. Couturier · Missed · xG 0.04S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.03N. Patrick · Missed · xG 0.03I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.03R. Hagg · Missed · xG 0.03T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.02I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.02K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.02N. Aube-Kubel · Missed · xG 0.02J. Braun · On goal · xG 0.02J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.02S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.02J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.02T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.02S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.02J. Braun · Missed · xG 0.02I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Braun · Missed · xG 0.01T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.01S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.01T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.01T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01S. Couturier · Missed · xG 0.01T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Voracek · Missed · xG 0.00T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.00K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.00J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI3 G · 3.4 xG · 61 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPHI
2.74 G
All situations
3 G3.4
2.24 G
Even strength
2 G3.0
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF30%70%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.19 – 3.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPHI
31
Shots on goal
43
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/3
Power play
1/1
4
Penalty minutes
8
21
Hits
17
12
Blocked shots
15
11
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000+110.02220—24:54
55R. RistolainenD000+210.13610—24:46
10H. JokiharjuD000+110.02100—21:11
78J. BrysonD022+220.03000—19:00
23S. ReinhartC101+220.050001418:47
68V. OlofssonL011+230.13000—18:15
21K. OkposoR011+110.041204317:12
53J. SkinnerL112+230.451007116:24
72T. ThompsonC000+120.32100016:15
37C. MittelstadtC101+230.710005016:12
33C. MillerD000020.03132—15:12
24D. CozensC011020.131002015:00
15R. SheahanC011020.110103313:07
25A. RuotsalainenC101010.09102012:59
44M. IrwinD000010.01320—12:51
74R. AsplundC101+120.36000012:49
20C. EakinC000-120.073005511:08
13T. RiederL000-100.00010—10:16
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(W)43403.9303.36+0.3659:43

Season series

PHI leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).