Canucks at Jets 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Vancouver Canucks

▸3

Winnipeg Jets

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Recap

written from the game data

The Vancouver Canucks beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-1. The Canucks scored first and never trailed. The Canucks led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bo Horvat's goal at 7:21 of the first period, which took the Canucks' chances from 59% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.4 to 2.8; shots on goal were VAN 31, WPG 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Thatcher Demko stopped 39 of 40 (.975), 2.4 goals saved above expected; Laurent Brossoit stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nils Hoglander (2 G), 2. Thatcher Demko (39 saves, .975), 3. Bo Horvat (1 G).

Three stars

★
N. Hoglander2 G
★★
T. Demko39 saves, .975
★★★
B. Horvat1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	214	010	17	331
WPG	113	014	013	140

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

N. Hoglander(11)
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
1-0
3:04
B. Horvat(17)
T. Pearson (7), M. Highmore (4)
wristxG 0.25win prob +15 pts
2-0
7:21
K. Connor(23)
M. Perreault (9), M. Scheifele (39)
snapxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
2-1
10:44

3rd period

N. Hoglander(12)
J. Miller (26), J. Rathbone (1)
wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
3-1
10:16

Penalties

6 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

7:36Blake Wheeler · Interferencedrawn by Tanner Pearson2 min
17:30J.T. Miller · Slashingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min

2nd

9:30Tyler Graovac · Cross checkingdrawn by Mason Appleton2 min
15:04J.T. Miller · Slashingdrawn by Mathieu Perreault2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WPG

Biggest swing: Bo Horvat, 1st 7:21 — VAN 59% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.4 xG · 56 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.8 xG · 41 att WPG

1 G · 3.4 xG · 56 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.83 G
All situations: 1 G3.4; 1.83 G
Even strength: 1 G2.7; 0.60 G
Power play: 0 G0.7; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

33%67%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.38 – 3.38

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 40; 35%
Faceoffs: 65%; 0/1
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 2; 17
Hits: 25; 18
Blocked shots: 13; 10
Giveaways: 10; 14
Takeaways: 12

Box score

every player line

Vancouver Canucks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
57T. MyersD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	2	0	0	—	24:49
53B. HorvatC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.92	3	0	0	34	22:51
23A. EdlerD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	1	5	0	—	20:43
15M. HighmoreC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.13	0	1	0	0	20:15
88N. SchmidtD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	0	4	0	—	19:49
9J. MillerC	0	1	1	+2	3	0.18	2	1	4	50	19:40
70T. PearsonL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.12	0	1	0	—	19:22
27T. HamonicD	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	2	0	—	19:09
43Q. HughesD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	18:56
6B. BoeserR	0	0	0	+2	4	0.54	0	0	0	—	17:45
36N. HoglanderL	2	0	2	+2	6	0.44	1	0	0	—	16:52
3J. RathboneD	0	1	1	0	3	0.17	3	4	0	—	16:20
24J. VeseyL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	12:18
44T. GraovacC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	0	0	2	17	11:52
13J. HawrylukR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	10:29
56M. MichaelisL	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	1	0	0	—	07:57
71Z. MacEwenR	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	2	0	0	—	07:30
72T. BoydC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	33	07:09

Vancouver Canucks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35T. Demko(W)	40	39	1	.975	3.42	+2.42	60:00

Season series

WPG leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score