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Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars

Final/OTTV FS-F, FS-SW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Dallas Stars 4-3 in overtime, Aaron Ekblad scoring at 4:50. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Panthers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Aaron Ekblad's goal at 4:50 of overtime, which took the Panthers' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were FLA 28, DAL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 31 of 34 (.912); Anton Khudobin stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Carter Verhaeghe (3 G, 1 A), 2. Noel Acciari (2 A), 3. Joel Hanley (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    C. Verhaeghe3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    N. Acciari2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Hanley2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
FLAFLA291110414428
DALDAL280811206334

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    0:24
  2. DAL
    J. Benn (11), J. Hanley (3)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    8:01
  3. DAL
    slapxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    9:57
  4. FLA
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    2-2
    17:00

2nd period

  1. FLA
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +24 pts
    3-2
    17:40

3rd period

  1. DAL
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +25 pts
    3-3
    3:00

Overtime

  1. FLA
    backhandxG 0.21win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    4:50

Penalties

FLA 6 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 15:18DALAndrew Cogliano · Trippingdrawn by Radko Gudas2 min
  • 17:12DALDenis Gurianov · Trippingdrawn by Gustav Forsling2 min

2nd

  • 1:20DALRadek Faksa · Hookingdrawn by Riley Stillman2 min
  • 9:16FLAGustav Forsling · Trippingdrawn by John Klingberg2 min
  • 16:43FLABrett Connolly · High stickingdrawn by Joel Hanley2 min

3rd

  • 8:58FLARiley Stillman · Hookingdrawn by Jason Dickinson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalFLA goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Aaron Ekblad, OT 4:50 — FLA 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Gurianov · Goal · xG 0.17J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.16J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.16J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.13J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.12R. Gardner · On goal · xG 0.11R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.11J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.10J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.10A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.10J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.10J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.09J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.09M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.08J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.08R. Gardner · Missed · xG 0.08J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.08M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.07J. Dickinson · Missed · xG 0.07E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.07M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.06J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.06J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.06A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.05D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.05J. L'Esperance · Goal · xG 0.05J. Dowling · On goal · xG 0.05D. Gurianov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.04R. Gardner · Missed · xG 0.04A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.03J. Klingberg · Goal · xG 0.03J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.03J. Oleksiak · On goal · xG 0.02J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Dowling · On goal · xG 0.02D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.02R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.02T. Kero · Missed · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.01J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.01D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.01J. Oleksiak · On goal · xG 0.01A. Sekera · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.00J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 3.1 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsDAL
2.84 G
All situations
3 G3.1
2.22 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.11 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA44%56%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 3.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsDAL
28
Shots on goal
34
56%
Faceoffs
44%
1/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
12
Hits
20
17
Blocked shots
16
5
Giveaways
13
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5A. EkbladD101+220.40120—27:43
52M. WeegarD000+110.00100—25:33
23C. VerhaegheC314+340.371003324:08
55N. AcciariC022+230.541305922:35
42G. ForslingD000-130.04002—22:24
11J. HuberdeauL011020.34010—20:42
21A. WennbergC000-100.000205020:00
7R. GudasD000-120.02250—19:28
91A. DuclairL000020.17210—18:58
10B. ConnollyR000-100.08102—17:19
77F. VatranoR000-120.23010—14:37
19M. MarchmentL000-100.171006713:25
83J. LammikkoC000010.201006013:15
74O. TippettR011-110.07010—12:21
65M. NutivaaraD000-110.04000—12:02
3K. YandleD000-120.04000—09:21
27E. LuostarinenC000-200.001006007:57
61R. StillmanD000020.06012—07:01
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)34313.9123.11+0.1164:31

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).