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Stars at Panthers
NHL

Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
2
Florida Panthers
▸3
FinalTV FS-F, FS-SW+·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Dallas Stars 3-2. The Panthers came back from two goals down. The Stars led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Frank Vatrano's goal at 16:50 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 52% to 92%. Expected goals were close — DAL 2.9, FLA 3.1; shots on goal were DAL 39, FLA 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 32 of 35 (.914); Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 37 of 39 (.949), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Frank Vatrano (1 G), 2. Sergei Bobrovsky (37 saves, .949), 3. Aleksander Barkov (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    F. Vatrano1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky37 saves, .949
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    A. Barkov1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL011217011239
FLAFLA010010315335

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Pavelski(10)PPG
    J. Dowling (3), M. Heiskanen (9)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    2:10
  2. DAL
    J. Benn(4)
    J. Klingberg (11), R. Faksa (3)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
    2-0
    17:49

3rd period

  1. FLA
    A. Barkov(8)
    C. Verhaeghe (7), M. Weegar (8)
    wristxG 0.60win prob +11 pts
    2-1
    13:39
  2. FLA
    A. Stralman(2)
    M. Marchment (1), E. Luostarinen (5)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +38 pts
    2-2
    14:31
  3. FLA
    F. Vatrano(5)
    A. Wennberg (5), P. Hornqvist (8)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +40 pts
    2-3
    16:50

Penalties

DAL 2 PIM·FLA 4 PIM

2nd

  • 0:46FLAAlexander Wennberg · Trippingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min
  • 2:36FLAMacKenzie Weegar · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 9:11DALJamie Oleksiak · Slashingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalDAL goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Frank Vatrano, 3rd 16:50 — FLA 52% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Barkov · Goal · xG 0.60R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.20F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.18P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.13C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.13C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.12F. Vatrano · Goal · xG 0.12A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.11A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.11C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.11A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.10A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.09C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.05R. Lomberg · Missed · xG 0.05A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.05F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.05A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.04A. Wennberg · Missed · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.04A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.04A. Wennberg · Missed · xG 0.04K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.03J. Lammikko · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.03A. Wennberg · Missed · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.03E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.02A. Wennberg · On goal · xG 0.02B. Connolly · Missed · xG 0.02M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.02J. Lammikko · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02K. Connauton · Missed · xG 0.02A. Stralman · Goal · xG 0.02A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.02J. Lammikko · On goal · xG 0.02P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.02N. Juulsen · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.01N. Juulsen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA3 G · 3.1 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsFLA
2.92 G
All situations
3 G3.1
1.81 G
Even strength
3 G2.9
1.01 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL48%52%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.84 – 2.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsFLA
39
Shots on goal
35
56%
Faceoffs
44%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
33
Hits
30
7
Blocked shots
11
10
Giveaways
8
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD011-240.14100—26:54
2J. OleksiakD000-240.10312—23:23
3J. KlingbergD011000.00210—21:18
12R. FaksaC011-120.023006020:45
23E. LindellD000000.00210—20:44
14J. BennL101-150.465107518:41
16J. PavelskiC101-120.323004618:13
18J. DickinsonC000-110.023103817:43
34D. GurianovR000020.25200—16:35
37J. DowlingC011010.211006015:56
25J. KivirantaL000-130.46100—15:45
5A. SekeraD000000.00210—15:06
15B. ComeauL000-130.291105014:52
11A. CoglianoC000030.08200012:16
17N. CaamanoR000030.21200—11:33
13M. PysykD000020.06000—10:58
21J. RobertsonL000020.21000—09:23
49R. GardnerC000020.080007508:55
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)35323.9143.05+0.0559:00

Season series

FLA leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).