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Sabres at Islanders
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
New York Islanders
▸5
FinalTV MSG+, MSG-B·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Sabres scored first; the Islanders answered. The Islanders led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 5:16 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.7, NYI 2.9; shots on goal were BUF 22, NYI 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.1 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 20 of 22 (.909), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Scott Mayfield (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mathew Barzal (1 G, 1 A), 3. Anders Lee (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    S. Mayfield1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    M. Barzal1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    A. Lee1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1705110222
NYINYI0114919529

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Bryson(1)
    B. Montour (4), J. Eichel (15)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    0:33

2nd period

  1. NYI
    M. Barzal(9)
    J. Eberle (6), S. Mayfield (5)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    3:51
  2. NYI
    B. Nelson(7)
    A. Beauvillier (4), R. Pulock (9)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    5:16
  3. NYI
    C. Clutterbuck(2)
    M. Martin (3), A. Pelech (5)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    8:45
  4. NYI
    S. Mayfield(2)
    C. Cizikas (6), J. Pageau (6)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +8 pts
    1-4
    15:29

3rd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(9)
    R. Dahlin (9), V. Olofsson (10)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    0:52
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(11)
    N. Dobson (8), M. Barzal (13)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +6 pts
    2-5
    2:15

Penalties

BUF 0 PIM·NYI 2 PIM

2nd

  • 18:45NYIScott Mayfield · Interferencedrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalBUF goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, 2nd 5:16 — NYI 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.21A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.19A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.17M. Barzal · Goal · xG 0.15A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.15B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.14C. Clutterbuck · Goal · xG 0.13B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.13M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.13M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.12M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.11M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.11J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.10C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.09M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.09B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.09O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.08J. Bailey · Missed · xG 0.08A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.07S. Mayfield · Goal · xG 0.06M. Dal Colle · Missed · xG 0.05R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.05N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.05N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.04S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.03O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.03S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.03N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.00A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.00M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI5 G · 2.9 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNYI
2.72 G
All situations
5 G2.9
2.62 G
Even strength
5 G2.9
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF47%53%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.67 – 2.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNYI
22
Shots on goal
29
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/1
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
2
31
Hits
25
10
Blocked shots
13
18
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78J. BrysonD101020.07120—20:48
26R. DahlinD011-110.00000—20:40
44M. IrwinD000-210.03610—20:32
62B. MontourD011030.37000—19:36
55R. RistolainenD000-110.11400—19:04
23S. ReinhartC101-130.5211010017:26
9J. EichelC011030.431105017:15
33C. MillerD000-300.00210—17:13
68V. OlofssonL011-120.34100—17:04
4T. HallL000010.27200—16:49
24D. CozensC000-100.04200016:17
53J. SkinnerL000030.27000—15:38
12E. StaalC000-200.001005015:32
27C. LazarC000000.004104014:50
15R. SheahanC000000.002001713:45
13T. RiederL000-110.22110—12:36
21K. OkposoR000-100.0111010012:32
20C. EakinC000-110.042108312:20
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(L)29245.8282.88-2.1260:00

Season series

NYI leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).