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Islanders at Sabres
NHL

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸3
Buffalo Sabres
1
FinalTV NBCSN, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jean-Gabriel Pageau's goal at 18:21 of the first period, which took the Islanders' chances from 62% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 1.9 to 1.6; shots on goal were NYI 29, BUF 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Josh Bailey (2 A), 2. Anders Lee (1 G), 3. Semyon Varlamov (20 saves, .952).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    J. Bailey2 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    A. Lee1 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    S. Varlamov20 saves, .952

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI2819012329
BUFBUF0121900121

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(5)
    J. Bailey (4), M. Barzal (9)
    deflectedxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    16:37
  2. NYI
    J. Pageau(5)
    N. Leddy (6), S. Mayfield (2)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    18:21

2nd period

  1. BUF
    V. Olofsson(5)PPG
    R. Dahlin (3), S. Reinhart (4)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    1:40
  2. NYI
    B. Nelson(3)PPG
    J. Bailey (5), O. Wahlstrom (1)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    3-1
    9:49

Penalties

NYI 4 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

2nd

  • 0:28NYIAdam Pelech · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 8:09BUFBrandon Davidson · Holdingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 19:30NYICasey Cizikas · Slashingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

3rd

  • 1:24BUFserved by T. Thompson · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNYI goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, 1st 18:21 — NYI 62% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.17T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.13J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.11S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.11V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.11V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.10T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.08J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.08V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03W. Borgen · On goal · xG 0.02E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.02T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.02B. Davidson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.01B. Davidson · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.01C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF1 G · 1.6 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsBUF
1.93 G
All situations
1 G1.6
1.22 G
Even strength
0 G1.2
0.31 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI50%50%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.56 – 1.57

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsBUF
29
Shots on goal
21
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
15
14
Blocked shots
12
6
Giveaways
6
2
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3A. PelechD000+110.02002—22:02
6R. PulockD000030.17320—22:00
24S. MayfieldD011+100.00000—20:42
2N. LeddyD011+220.02320—19:55
4A. GreeneD000000.08020—19:19
13M. BarzalC011+110.161005019:18
27A. LeeL101+220.550104019:02
7J. EberleR000030.19000—18:34
12J. BaileyR022+130.0901010017:16
29B. NelsonC101030.190103816:45
44J. PageauC101+130.070105915:47
8N. DobsonD000010.06100—15:00
53C. CizikasC000010.003126713:09
47L. KomarovR000010.0111010012:45
15C. ClutterbuckR000010.12220—12:31
28M. Dal ColleL000000.07200—12:05
26O. WahlstromR011+140.11000—11:16
17M. MartinL000000.00100—09:22
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(W)21201.9521.57+0.5760:00

Season series

NYI leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).