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Sabres at Islanders
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
New York Islanders
▸3
FinalTV MSG+, MSG-B·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jean-Gabriel Pageau's goal at 15:08 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 53% to 90%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.6, NYI 2.4; shots on goal were BUF 36, NYI 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 0.6 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1 G), 2. Matt Martin (1 G), 3. Nick Leddy (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    J. Pageau1 G
  2. ★★
    NYI
    M. Martin1 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    N. Leddy1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF11207117236
NYINYI0318212323

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    C. Lazar(4)
    H. Jokiharju (1), C. Mittelstadt (2)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    17:15

2nd period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(8)
    J. Eberle (4), R. Pulock (7)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    3:56

3rd period

  1. NYI
    M. Martin(2)
    A. Greene (1), C. Cizikas (2)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +25 pts
    1-2
    3:01
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(6)PPG
    V. Olofsson (7), R. Dahlin (5)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    5:48
  3. NYI
    J. Pageau(7)PPG
    O. Wahlstrom (2), N. Leddy (9)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +36 pts
    2-3
    15:08

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·NYI 6 PIM

1st

  • 10:48NYIScott Mayfield · Hookingdrawn by Tobias Rieder2 min

2nd

  • 0:52NYIMathew Barzal · Trippingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 4:59BUFSam Reinhart · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Pulock2 min

3rd

  • 4:21NYIAnders Lee · Interferencedrawn by Riley Sheahan2 min
  • 13:25BUFRiley Sheahan · Trippingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalBUF goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, 3rd 15:08 — NYI 53% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.19J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.17A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.15J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.14A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.14O. Wahlstrom · Missed · xG 0.14B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.12J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.12A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.11M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.11M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.06M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.06B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.06A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.05N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.05A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.05M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.05M. Martin · Goal · xG 0.05A. Czarnik · Missed · xG 0.04O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.04S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bailey · Missed · xG 0.03C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.03C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.02O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.02A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.02M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.02O. Wahlstrom · Missed · xG 0.02R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01
NYI3 G · 2.4 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNYI
2.62 G
All situations
3 G2.4
1.51 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
1.01 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF53%47%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.57 – 2.40

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNYI
36
Shots on goal
23
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
14
Hits
21
9
Blocked shots
11
6
Giveaways
5
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011-130.21110—23:40
9J. EichelC000030.201002522:57
68V. OlofssonL011050.49000—22:46
23S. ReinhartC101030.26102022:37
44M. IrwinD000+100.00020—21:03
62B. MontourD000000.00100—20:40
4T. HallL000-160.47000—19:01
33C. MillerD000-130.21210—19:01
12E. StaalC000030.170007016:53
24D. CozensC000010.030106715:47
10H. JokiharjuD011000.00020—15:17
88B. DavidsonD000-130.05210—14:25
21K. OkposoR000-110.15100—13:10
37C. MittelstadtC011+120.13100012:38
27C. LazarC101010.154102511:52
20C. EakinC000-200.000005011:18
15R. SheahanC000000.000026711:07
13T. RiederL000020.06000—03:42
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(L)23203.8702.41-0.5958:23

Season series

NYI leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).