Senators at Jets 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Ottawa Senators

▸2

Winnipeg Jets

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Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Winnipeg Jets 2-1. The Jets scored first; the Senators answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brady Tkachuk's goal at 19:51 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 49% to 99%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 2.9 to 1.9; shots on goal were OTT 29, WPG 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Marcus Hogberg stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (1 G), 2. Connor Hellebuyck (27 saves, .931), 3. Evgenii Dadonov (1 G).

Three stars

★
B. Tkachuk1 G
★★
C. Hellebuyck27 saves, .931
★★★
E. Dadonov1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	08	112	19	229
WPG	08	111	012	131

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

M. Scheifele(6)
K. Vesalainen (1), J. Morrissey (6)
backhandxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
0-1
5:43
E. Dadonov(4)
C. White (3), N. Paul (4)
tip-inxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
1-1
7:29

3rd period

B. Tkachuk(4)
M. Reilly (6), C. Brown (5)
deflectedxG 0.14win prob +50 pts
2-1
19:51

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

11:11Blake Wheeler · Roughingdrawn by Colin White2 min
14:12Nick Paul · Hookingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WPG

Biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk, 3rd 19:51 — OTT 49% → 99%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.9 xG · 45 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.9 xG · 40 att WPG

1 G · 2.9 xG · 45 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.92 G
All situations: 1 G2.9; 1.82 G
Even strength: 1 G2.7; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

32%68%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.88 – 2.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 31; 50%
Faceoffs: 50%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 17
Hits: 21; 23
Blocked shots: 11; 16
Giveaways: 12; 4
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Ottawa Senators skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
72T. ChabotD	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	0	3	0	—	28:43
22N. ZaitsevD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	2	4	0	—	26:50
7B. TkachukL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.25	3	0	0	100	18:54
28C. BrownR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	18:33
13N. PaulL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.18	1	2	2	67	17:42
63E. DadonovL	1	0	1	+1	3	0.20	0	0	0	—	17:14
5M. ReillyD	0	1	1	+2	3	0.04	0	1	0	—	16:43
44E. GudbransonD	0	0	0	0	4	0.08	5	0	0	—	16:08
36C. WhiteC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.18	1	1	0	25	16:06
18T. StützleC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.12	0	1	0	0	15:56
2A. ZubD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	15:43
71C. TierneyC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	33	15:28
21D. StepanC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.30	1	1	0	50	14:36
24C. WolaninD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	0	0	0	—	13:50
9J. NorrisC	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	0	1	0	75	12:58
19D. BathersonR	0	0	0	0	0	0.11	0	2	0	—	12:55
51A. AnisimovC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	50	09:53
16A. WatsonL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	2	3	0	100	09:48

Ottawa Senators goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1M. Hogberg(W)	31	30	1	.968	2.87	+1.87	60:00

Season series

WPG leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

Box score