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Lightning at Islanders
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
New York Islanders
▸5
FinalTV USA, CBC·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-3. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 16:35 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 52% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 4.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were TBL 37, NYI 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 0.8 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 34 of 37 (.919). Three stars: 1. Brock Nelson (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mikhail Sergachev (1 G, 1 A), 3. Anthony Beauvillier (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    B. Nelson1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    M. Sergachev1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    A. Beauvillier1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL114011212337
NYINYI11621029535

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    C. Clutterbuck(2)
    R. Pulock (8), M. Martin (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    12:58
  2. TBL
    M. Sergachev(2)
    Y. Gourde (5)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    16:31

2nd period

  1. NYI
    A. Pelech(1)
    J. Pageau (3), M. Barzal (10)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +19 pts
    1-2
    11:50
  2. NYI
    A. Beauvillier(9)
    B. Nelson (9), D. Toews (8)
    slapxG 0.22win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    13:50

3rd period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(7)PPG
    N. Kucherov (17), M. Sergachev (5)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    2:32
  2. TBL
    T. Johnson(4)
    E. Cernak (3), C. Verhaeghe (2)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +33 pts
    3-3
    12:04
  3. NYI
    B. Nelson(8)
    A. Beauvillier (5), J. Bailey (16)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +39 pts
    3-4
    16:35
  4. NYI
    J. Pageau(8)
    J. Bailey (17)
    xG 0.94win prob +5 pts
    3-5
    19:24

Penalties

TBL 41 PIM·NYI 29 PIM

2nd

  • 9:16TBLMitchell Stephens · Slashingdrawn by Anders Lee2 min
  • 11:50NYIAnders Lee · Roughingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min
  • 11:50TBLCedric Paquette · Roughingdrawn by Anders Lee2 min

3rd

  • 1:53NYIJordan Eberle · Holdingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 5:28TBLRyan McDonagh · Hookingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 19:24NYICal Clutterbuck · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:24TBLNikita Kucherov · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:24NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:24TBLMikhail Sergachev · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:24TBLVictor Hedman · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:32NYIMatt Martin · Fightingdrawn by Barclay Goodrow5 min
  • 19:32TBLBarclay Goodrow · Fightingdrawn by Matt Martin5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalTBL goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, 3rd 16:35 — NYI 52% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.94C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.35N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.31A. Beauvillier · Goal · xG 0.22M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.22J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.21M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.17J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.14D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.13J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.11C. Clutterbuck · Goal · xG 0.11L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.10A. Pelech · Goal · xG 0.09J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.09B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.09A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.06J. Bailey · Missed · xG 0.06J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.06A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.05C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.05C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.05C. Clutterbuck · Missed · xG 0.05B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.05M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.04S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.03M. Dal Colle · On goal · xG 0.03R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.03R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.02C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.00A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.00J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.00A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI5 G · 4.1 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNYI
2.83 G
All situations
5 G4.1
2.62 G
Even strength
5 G2.9
0.11 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL45%55%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.78 – 3.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNYI
37
Shots on goal
35
58%
Faceoffs
42%
1/1
Power play
0/2
41
Penalty minutes
29
62
Hits
44
14
Blocked shots
25
9
Giveaways
19
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000-110.052110—23:23
86N. KucherovR011+140.253010—22:07
98M. SergachevD112040.182210—21:05
71A. CirelliC000-240.413005720:57
18O. PalatL101-130.4620010019:57
22K. ShattenkirkD000-120.15430—18:52
37Y. GourdeC011-120.025003318:33
27R. McDonaghD000-310.01312—18:11
19B. GoodrowC000-210.107156718:02
81E. CernakD011+120.05100—17:22
20B. ColemanL000-240.15600—15:23
24Z. BogosianD000-230.03110—13:32
13C. PaquetteC000-100.237328312:52
23C. VerhaegheC011010.06300012:50
14P. MaroonL000010.17200—12:08
9T. JohnsonC101+120.164004310:59
67M. StephensC000-210.313128210:59
2L. SchennD000010.01410—07:51
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)35314.8863.15-0.8558:57

Series

TBL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).