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Islanders at Lightning
NHL

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸8
FinalTV NBCSN, CBC·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Islanders 8-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan McDonagh's goal at 10:46 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 67% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.3 to 2.8; shots on goal were NYI 24, TBL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 20 of 25 (.800), 2.5 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 24 (.917), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (2 G, 3 A), 2. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 4 A), 3. Victor Hedman (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point2 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 4 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    V. Hedman1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI1601117224
TBLTBL31028316834

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(7)
    B. Coleman (5), L. Schenn (1)
    wristxG 0.35win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    1:14
  2. NYI
    J. Eberle(4)PPG
    A. Lee (1), M. Barzal (9)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    4:33
  3. TBL
    V. Hedman(6)PPG
    B. Point (13), N. Kucherov (13)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    8:12
  4. TBL
    R. McDonagh(1)
    N. Kucherov (14), M. Sergachev (4)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    10:46

2nd period

  1. TBL
    Y. Gourde(4)
    P. Maroon (3), K. Shattenkirk (6)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    4:03
  2. TBL
    B. Point(8)PPG
    V. Hedman (5), N. Kucherov (15)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +2 pts
    1-5
    13:18

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(5)
    B. Point (14), K. Shattenkirk (7)
    tip-inxG 0.18
    1-6
    5:51
  2. NYI
    N. Leddy(3)
    A. Lee (2), J. Eberle (9)
    snapxG 0.13
    2-6
    8:46
  3. TBL
    O. Palat(6)
    B. Point (15), N. Kucherov (16)
    wristxG 0.19
    2-7
    9:31
  4. TBL
    Y. Gourde(5)PPG
    K. Shattenkirk (8), V. Hedman (6)
    wristxG 0.12
    2-8
    13:15

Penalties

NYI 24 PIM·TBL 12 PIM

1st

  • 2:49TBLBlake Coleman · Interferencedrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min
  • 6:16NYIAndy Greene · Holding the stickdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 15:00TBLNikita Kucherov · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 18:13TBLMikhail Sergachev · Trippingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min

2nd

  • 8:13TBLVictor Hedman · High stickingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 10:56NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau · Hookingdrawn by Barclay Goodrow2 min
  • 12:54NYIAndy Greene · High stickingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 17:53TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy · Trippingdrawn by Derick Brassard2 min

3rd

  • 4:57NYIMatt Martin · Roughingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 4:57TBLMikhail Sergachev · Roughingdrawn by Matt Martin2 min
  • 4:57NYIRoss Johnston · Misconduct10 min
  • 12:37NYIDerick Brassard · Slashingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 15:20NYIserved by J. Eberle · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 15:31NYIMatt Martin · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNYI goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan McDonagh, 1st 10:46 — TBL 67% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · Goal · xG 0.35Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.32A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.30A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.21O. Palat · Goal · xG 0.19N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.18B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.14B. Point · Goal · xG 0.12C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.12Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.12P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.11B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.10V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.09V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.08A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.08B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.07L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.07C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.05R. McDonagh · Goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.04T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.01P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.01P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.00T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.00B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.00R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL8 G · 3.3 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsTBL
2.82 G
All situations
8 G3.3
1.21 G
Even strength
5 G2.2
1.21 G
Power play
3 G1.1
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 64 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI42%58%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 3.20

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsTBL
24
Shots on goal
34
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/5
Power play
3/6
24
Penalty minutes
12
44
Hits
34
12
Blocked shots
14
18
Giveaways
20
8
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6R. PulockD000-210.04200—21:32
24S. MayfieldD000000.00220—20:36
13M. BarzalC011-210.042105620:01
7J. EberleR112050.505005019:47
25D. ToewsD000-200.05200—19:47
2N. LeddyD101-130.24220—18:58
3A. PelechD000-200.00310—18:53
29B. NelsonC000-120.730004318:19
27A. LeeL022-120.2031010018:14
18A. BeauvillierR000-220.18100—16:40
44J. PageauC000010.095026416:27
4A. GreeneD000-130.05024—16:16
12J. BaileyR000-100.0030010015:59
10D. BrassardC000-120.40002012:22
53C. CizikasC000-110.073102010:51
17M. MartinL000-110.19614—09:50
32R. JohnstonL000000.002010—08:34
15C. ClutterbuckR000-100.0031010006:10
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov25205.8002.52-2.4849:05
1T. Greiss(L)963.6670.74-2.2610:46

Series

TBL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).