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Islanders at Capitals
NHL

New York Islanders at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸5
Washington Capitals
2
FinalTV NBCSN, MSG+·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Washington Capitals 5-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Islanders led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 6:54 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.8 to 1.8; shots on goal were NYI 32, WSH 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 23 of 25 (.920); Braden Holtby stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nick Leddy (1 G), 2. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2 A), 3. Alex Ovechkin (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    N. Leddy1 G
  2. ★★
    NYI
    J. Pageau2 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    A. Ovechkin2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI01231228532
WSHWSH1617012225

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(1)
    T. Wilson (2), J. Carlson (3)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:56

2nd period

  1. NYI
    N. Leddy(1)PPG
    J. Bailey (6), A. Beauvillier (3)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    2:56
  2. NYI
    M. Martin(2)
    S. Mayfield (1)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    5:01
  3. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(2)
    B. Dillon (1), D. Orlov (2)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    6:39
  4. NYI
    B. Nelson(3)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.23win prob +18 pts
    3-2
    6:54

3rd period

  1. NYI
    C. Clutterbuck(1)
    J. Pageau (1)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +8 pts
    4-2
    17:14
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(2)EN
    J. Pageau (2), A. Pelech (1)
    wristxG 0.47win prob +1 pts
    5-2
    18:21

Penalties

NYI 8 PIM·WSH 14 PIM

1st

  • 3:46WSHJakub Vrana · Slashingdrawn by Anthony Beauvillier2 min
  • 3:46NYIAnthony Beauvillier · Cross checkingdrawn by Jakub Vrana2 min
  • 5:13WSHserved by A. Ovechkin · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 15:20WSHTom Wilson · Elbowingdrawn by Ryan Pulock2 min

2nd

  • 2:38WSHNic Dowd · High stickingdrawn by Jordan Eberle2 min
  • 7:15NYIMatt Martin · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 7:15WSHGarnet Hathaway · Boardingdrawn by Andy Greene2 min
  • 7:15WSHGarnet Hathaway · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 13:42WSHserved by A. Ovechkin · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 3:15NYIRyan Pulock · Trippingdrawn by Richard Panik2 min
  • 8:42NYIAndy Greene · Trippingdrawn by Evgeny Kuznetsov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalNYI goalFinal: WSH 0%

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, 2nd 6:54 — NYI 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.19A. Ovechkin · Goal · xG 0.18C. Hagelin · Missed · xG 0.14J. Vrana · Missed · xG 0.14A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.13T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.10A. Ovechkin · Goal · xG 0.10T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.09T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.09G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.06A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.06T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.06N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.05L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.05E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.05T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.03R. Panik · On goal · xG 0.03J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.03J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Kempny · Missed · xG 0.02J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.02E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.01J. Siegenthaler · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Panik · On goal · xG 0.01T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.00N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.00A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.00M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.00L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH2 G · 1.8 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsWSH
2.84 G
All situations
2 G1.8
2.03 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI60%40%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 1.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsWSH
32
Shots on goal
25
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/5
Power play
0/2
8
Penalty minutes
14
38
Hits
34
18
Blocked shots
17
11
Giveaways
9
7
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2N. LeddyD101+220.07020—22:11
6R. PulockD000-140.08032—20:24
3A. PelechD011-130.12210—19:58
12J. BaileyR011+230.22020—19:13
25D. ToewsD000+110.08140—18:40
29B. NelsonC101+120.282006018:31
44J. PageauC022+220.254007418:02
18A. BeauvillierR011+120.26112—16:44
27A. LeeL101020.501004016:33
13M. BarzalC000-110.050004316:24
24S. MayfieldD011+100.00530—16:15
7J. EberleR000-100.00100—15:34
4A. GreeneD000+200.00312—14:58
47L. KomarovR000+110.08510—14:15
10D. BrassardC000010.185002513:41
53C. CizikasC000020.111003613:00
15C. ClutterbuckR101+140.29300—12:12
17M. MartinL101020.20402—07:20
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(W)25232.9201.79-0.2160:00

Series

NYI leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).