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Islanders at Capitals
NHL

New York Islanders at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸4
Washington Capitals
2
FinalTV NBCSN, MSG+·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Washington Capitals 4-2. The Islanders came back from two goals down. The Capitals led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Bailey's goal at 6:52 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 42% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were NYI 27, WSH 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 24 of 26 (.923), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Josh Bailey (1 G, 1 A), 2. Brock Nelson (2 A), 3. T.J. Oshie (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    J. Bailey1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    B. Nelson2 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    T. Oshie2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI02111314427
WSHWSH0729010226

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. WSH
    T. Oshie(2)PPG
    E. Kuznetsov (1), J. Carlson (1)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    5:27
  2. WSH
    T. Oshie(3)PPG
    T. Wilson (1), J. Carlson (2)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    11:18
  3. NYI
    J. Eberle(3)
    M. Barzal (3)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    18:57

3rd period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(1)
    R. Pulock (4), B. Nelson (2)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    0:51
  2. NYI
    J. Bailey(1)SHG
    B. Nelson (3)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +32 pts
    3-2
    6:52
  3. NYI
    A. Beauvillier(4)
    J. Bailey (5), M. Barzal (4)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +15 pts
    4-2
    11:55

Penalties

NYI 23 PIM·WSH 17 PIM

1st

  • 2:33NYIAnders Lee · Interferencedrawn by Nicklas Backstrom2 min
  • 2:33WSHJohn Carlson · Roughingdrawn by Anders Lee2 min
  • 2:33NYIAnders Lee · Roughingdrawn by John Carlson2 min
  • 4:22WSHTom Wilson · Roughingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 4:22NYICasey Cizikas · Roughingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min
  • 6:59NYIMatt Martin · Roughingdrawn by Alex Ovechkin2 min
  • 9:03NYIScott Mayfield · Trippingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min
  • 10:24WSHTom Wilson · Interferencedrawn by Adam Pelech2 min
  • 17:13NYIAnders Lee · Fightingdrawn by Tom Wilson5 min
  • 17:13WSHTom Wilson · Fightingdrawn by Anders Lee5 min

2nd

  • 4:19NYIMatt Martin · Interferencedrawn by Carl Hagelin2 min
  • 8:42WSHGarnet Hathaway · Interferencedrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
  • 10:18NYIJordan Eberle · Hookingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min
  • 11:53WSHRichard Panik · Boardingdrawn by Andy Greene2 min
  • 16:04NYIserved by J. Eberle · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 5:51NYILeo Komarov · High stickingdrawn by Ilya Kovalchuk2 min
  • 19:17WSHTom Wilson · Holdingdrawn by Adam Pelech2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalNYI goalFinal: WSH 0%

Biggest swing: Josh Bailey, 3rd 6:52 — NYI 42% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Oshie · Goal · xG 0.34J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.21T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.15T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.15T. Oshie · Goal · xG 0.13A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.11E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.10T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.10N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.10A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.09A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.09T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.09A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.08N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.08T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.08A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.07A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.07E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.07T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.06E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.05J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.05A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.05E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.04I. Kovalchuk · Missed · xG 0.04A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.04E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.04J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Panik · On goal · xG 0.03D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.03N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.03N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.03E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.02B. Dillon · On goal · xG 0.01N. Dowd · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH2 G · 2.8 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsWSH
3.14 G
All situations
2 G2.8
2.13 G
Even strength
0 G0.7
0.30 G
Power play
2 G2.1
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI49%51%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.57 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsWSH
27
Shots on goal
26
64%
Faceoffs
36%
0/4
Power play
2/7
23
Penalty minutes
17
39
Hits
36
16
Blocked shots
13
17
Giveaways
13
8
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3A. PelechD000+210.00220—24:02
6R. PulockD011+120.07400—21:58
29B. NelsonC022+210.202007019:24
2N. LeddyD000+210.02220—18:26
24S. MayfieldD000+110.01532—18:18
12J. BaileyR112+320.20130—17:33
25D. ToewsD000+100.02000—17:18
18A. BeauvillierR101+120.35110—16:49
7J. EberleR101+140.22002—16:04
44J. PageauC000000.492005815:47
4A. GreeneD000+120.04100—15:47
13M. BarzalC022+220.300007315:22
15C. ClutterbuckR000+100.00220—14:17
47L. KomarovR000000.00702—12:55
27A. LeeL101+130.4600910012:32
53C. CizikasC000020.313225012:17
10D. BrassardC000020.2930010010:44
17M. MartinL000020.12414—08:21
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(W)26242.9232.76+0.7660:00

Series

NYI leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).