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Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues

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Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the St. Louis Blues 6-3. The Blues scored first; the Jets answered. The Jets led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Tanev's goal at 4:25 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 74% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.3 to 2.7; shots on goal were WPG 29, STL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 29 (.897); Jordan Binnington stopped 23 of 29 (.793), 3.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kyle Connor (2 G), 2. Dustin Byfuglien (1 G, 1 A), 3. David Perron (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    K. Connor2 G
  2. ★★
    WPG
    D. Byfuglien1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    D. Perron1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG01331234629
STLSTL1706216329

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    D. Perron(2)PPG
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    19:12

2nd period

  1. WPG
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    4:57
  2. WPG
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    7:47
  3. WPG
    K. Connor(1)PPG
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    3-1
    8:58

3rd period

  1. STL
    wristxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    3-2
    1:51
  2. WPG
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    4:25
  3. WPG
    wristxG 0.03win prob +5 pts
    5-2
    8:06
  4. STL
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +2 pts
    5-3
    13:42
  5. WPG
    wristxG 0.20win prob +2 pts
    6-3
    14:44

Penalties

WPG 14 PIM·STL 14 PIM

1st

  • 8:47STLJoel Edmundson · Trippingdrawn by Patrik Laine2 min
  • 18:36WPGTyler Myers · Cross checkingdrawn by Oskar Sundqvist2 min
  • 19:44STLJay Bouwmeester · Trippingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

2nd

  • 7:18WPGDustin Byfuglien · Roughingdrawn by Brayden Schenn2 min
  • 7:18STLBrayden Schenn · Roughingdrawn by Dustin Byfuglien2 min
  • 8:45STLJay Bouwmeester · Trippingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 14:06WPGDmitry Kulikov · Roughingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min
  • 18:40WPGMathieu Perreault · Slashingdrawn by Joel Edmundson2 min

3rd

  • 1:19WPGBlake Wheeler · Slashingdrawn by Colton Parayko2 min
  • 1:54STLOskar Sundqvist · Trippingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 17:27STLAlex Pietrangelo · Roughingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 17:27WPGMark Scheifele · Roughingdrawn by Alex Pietrangelo2 min
  • 17:27STLAlex Pietrangelo · Cross checkingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min
  • 19:43WPGKevin Hayes · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Bozak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalWPG goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Brandon Tanev, 3rd 4:25 — WPG 74% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.23V. Dunn · On goal · xG 0.18R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.16A. Steen · Goal · xG 0.15J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.15V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.11R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.10D. Perron · Goal · xG 0.10A. Steen · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.09R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.09R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.08T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.08R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.07P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.07R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.07D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.06C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.06O. Sundqvist · Missed · xG 0.06V. Dunn · On goal · xG 0.06V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.05R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.04D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.04A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.04R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.04V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.03C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.03V. Dunn · On goal · xG 0.03V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.03A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.03V. Dunn · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.02V. Dunn · Missed · xG 0.02J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02J. Edmundson · Missed · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.01V. Dunn · On goal · xG 0.00A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.00
STL3 G · 2.7 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsSTL
3.36 G
All situations
3 G2.7
1.95 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.91 G
Power play
2 G0.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG55%45%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.90 – 2.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsSTL
29
Shots on goal
29
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/5
Power play
2/5
14
Penalty minutes
14
23
Hits
29
12
Blocked shots
17
6
Giveaways
5
10
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
33D. ByfuglienD112+330.32202—25:04
81K. ConnorL202+150.62100—22:25
8J. TroubaD011050.25110—22:02
26B. WheelerR011+200.40102—20:45
55M. ScheifeleC011+210.230225219:48
57T. MyersD000+130.16102—19:28
7B. ChiarotD000+300.00320—19:19
44J. MorrisseyD011020.04000—17:44
29P. LaineL112+110.32300—16:57
17A. LowryC000000.003005014:59
18B. LittleC011+110.323104614:51
13B. TanevL101030.15130—14:16
9A. CoppC022+100.04110013:22
27N. EhlersL000010.08010—12:47
5D. KulikovD000+100.00102—12:22
12K. HayesR101+130.251023311:15
28J. RoslovicC000+100.00100007:39
85M. PerreaultC011+110.08012007:32
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)29263.8972.69-0.3160:00

Series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).