Capitals at Penguins 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Washington Capitals

▸2

Pittsburgh Penguins

Final/OTTV NBCSN, SN·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 2-1 in overtime, Evgeny Kuznetsov scoring at 5:27. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evgeny Kuznetsov's goal at 5:27 of overtime, which took the Capitals' chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals were close — WSH 1.9, PIT 1.7; shots on goal were WSH 30, PIT 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Braden Holtby stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Matt Murray stopped 28 of 30 (.933). Three stars: 1. Evgeny Kuznetsov (1 G), 2. Alex Chiasson (1 G), 3. Kris Letang (1 G).

Three stars

★
E. Kuznetsov1 G
★★
A. Chiasson1 G
★★★
K. Letang1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WSH	07	18	09	16	230
PIT	06	19	05	02	122

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

A. Chiasson(1)
N. Walker (1), J. Beagle (3)
snapxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
1-0
2:13
K. Letang(3)
B. Dumoulin (6), S. Crosby (12)
slapxG 0.04win prob +20 pts
1-1
11:52

Overtime

E. Kuznetsov(7)
A. Ovechkin (7), D. Orlov (5)
wristxG 0.15win prob +52 pts
2-1
5:27

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

4:11Olli Maatta · High stickingdrawn by Lars Eller2 min
11:25Michal Kempny · Trippingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: PIT

Biggest swing: Evgeny Kuznetsov, OT 5:27 — WSH 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.7 xG · 38 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.9 xG · 41 att PIT

1 G · 1.7 xG · 38 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.92 G
All situations: 1 G1.7; 1.72 G
Even strength: 1 G1.6; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

53%47%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.89 – 1.75

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 22; 38%
Faceoffs: 62%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 36
Hits: 33; 14
Blocked shots: 21; 4
Giveaways: 15; 4
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Washington Capitals skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
2M. NiskanenD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	3	1	0	—	29:38
9D. OrlovD	0	1	1	0	1	0.03	2	1	0	—	27:50
74J. CarlsonD	0	0	0	0	4	0.15	3	0	0	—	23:20
8A. OvechkinL	0	1	1	+1	5	0.21	7	0	0	—	23:03
20L. EllerC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.08	2	0	0	56	22:11
92E. KuznetsovC	1	0	1	0	2	0.26	0	0	0	22	21:48
77T. OshieR	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	3	0	0	—	21:33
18C. StephensonC	0	0	0	0	0	0.14	0	0	0	33	20:31
13J. VranaL	0	0	0	0	3	0.29	0	1	0	67	20:18
6M. KempnyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	5	2	—	20:05
44B. OrpikD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	16:39
25D. Smith-PellyR	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	3	1	0	—	12:53
10B. ConnollyR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	12:26
72T. BoydC	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	1	2	0	56	12:12
29C. DjoosD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	11:47
83J. BeagleC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	5	1	0	40	11:05
39A. ChiassonR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.26	0	0	0	100	09:27
79N. WalkerL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	3	0	0	—	08:29

Washington Capitals goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
70B. Holtby(W)	22	21	1	.955	1.75	+0.75	65:27

Series

WSH leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins

2nd period

Overtime

1st

Box score