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Penguins at Capitals
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸3
Washington Capitals
2
FinalTV NBCSN, CBC·Verizon Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Washington Capitals 3-2. The Penguins came back from two goals down. The Capitals led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Guentzel's goal at 7:48 of the third period, which took the Penguins' chances from 48% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.1 to 1.6; shots on goal were PIT 25, WSH 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (1 G, 2 A), 2. Sidney Crosby (1 G, 1 A), 3. Alex Ovechkin (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    J. Guentzel1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    PIT
    S. Crosby1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    A. Ovechkin1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PITPIT090838325
WSHWSH16010118234

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    E. Kuznetsov(5)
    A. Ovechkin (4), T. Wilson (2)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:17

3rd period

  1. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(6)
    T. Wilson (3), D. Orlov (3)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    0:28
  2. PIT
    P. Hornqvist(3)
    J. Schultz (3), J. Guentzel (8)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    2:59
  3. PIT
    S. Crosby(7)
    J. Guentzel (9), P. Hornqvist (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +27 pts
    2-2
    5:20
  4. PIT
    J. Guentzel(7)
    S. Crosby (8)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +30 pts
    3-2
    7:48

Penalties

PIT 2 PIM·WSH 4 PIM

2nd

  • 2:56WSHTom Wilson · Interferencedrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min

3rd

  • 9:40WSHChandler Stephenson · High stickingdrawn by Kris Letang2 min
  • 10:12PITJake Guentzel · High stickingdrawn by Devante Smith-Pelly2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalPIT goalFinal: WSH 0%

Biggest swing: Jake Guentzel, 3rd 7:48 — PIT 48% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.40N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.26E. Kuznetsov · Goal · xG 0.16E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.15B. Connolly · Missed · xG 0.15D. Smith-Pelly · On goal · xG 0.13A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.11B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.11E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.09A. Ovechkin · Goal · xG 0.09M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.09A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.09N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.08D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.08A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.08T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.07D. Smith-Pelly · On goal · xG 0.07A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.06A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.05T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Chiasson · Missed · xG 0.04C. Djoos · On goal · xG 0.04J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.03T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.03J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.03N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.03C. Djoos · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.02A. Chiasson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Niskanen · Missed · xG 0.02D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.02E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.02L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.02M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.01L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.01C. Djoos · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.01E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.01C. Djoos · Missed · xG 0.00B. Orpik · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH2 G · 3.1 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsWSH
1.63 G
All situations
2 G3.1
1.53 G
Even strength
2 G2.8
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT24%76%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.60 – 3.05

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsWSH
25
Shots on goal
34
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
24
Hits
44
22
Blocked shots
16
14
Giveaways
14
10
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
58K. LetangD000-110.02220—25:01
8B. DumoulinD000-120.08120—24:20
3O. MaattaD000+220.08410—23:32
4J. SchultzD011+210.02040—22:05
87S. CrosbyC112+130.331303319:25
15R. SheahanC000010.133105619:15
59J. GuentzelC123+130.22212019:00
81P. KesselR000010.01010—18:42
72P. HornqvistR112+120.10110—17:24
17B. RustR000000.00100—17:07
2C. RuhwedelD000010.05200—14:08
19D. BrassardC000030.230006314:02
43C. ShearyL000030.13010—14:01
37C. RowneyC000000.002102512:18
12D. SimonC000020.20220012:16
6J. OleksiakD000000.02110—09:24
34T. KuhnhacklR000000.00100—09:20
46Z. Aston-ReeseL000000.00110—06:40
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(W)34322.9413.06+1.0660:00

Series

WSH leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).