Model-driven college football coverage from the Gridpex desks.
Florida State scored 33 points a game last season. Two afternoons wrote most of that: 77-3 over East Texas A&M and 66-10 over Kent State. Strip those two out a…
Hawai'i won the last meeting 23-20 in Honolulu, in last season's opener, and on Aug. 29 the trip reverses. The Rainbow Warriors come to Stanford Stadium off a…
Virginia won eleven games last fall behind a quarterback, a 1,000-yard back and a receiving corps that are all gone. NC State won eight and kept the one player…
San José State's first snap of 2026 comes at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, taken by a Hawai'i transfer, Luke Weaver, who has thrown 20 career passes again…
The last time these programs met, last September in Chapel Hill, TCU won 48-14. Almost nobody who did the damage will be in Dublin. Josh Hoover, who threw for…
Trying to out-predict the betting market taught us something we did not enjoy learning: it almost doesn't matter which model you build. We built four that shar…
A betting line has two moments worth caring about: when it opens, and when it closes. The close is razor-sharp — the sum of every sharp bettor's opinion and a…
We spent months trying to build a model that beats the market. Here is the deflating punch line: the most dependable edge we measured requires no model whatsoe…
It's the most intuitive edge in football betting: a team loses its starting quarterback, so you bet against them. Everyone can see the backup is worse. The tro…
After ruling out every version of 'we can predict the game better,' one lead survived — and it's not about talent, which the market prices efficiently. It's ab…
On paper this is a marquee Big Ten road test, and we treat it like one — with a giant asterisk attached. The lean says Indiana, the recent track record says Oh…
The read on Oregon at Ohio State is almost stubbornly boring. These look like two of the best teams in the country, with Ohio State a hair ahead, the kind of g…
The most common way to build a team-strength rating quietly shortchanges the same three programs every single year, and it can't help itself. Hand it a recipe…
The case that Texas was a real national-title team in 2024 holds up. The reason everyone gives for it doesn't. The story you keep hearing is about Quinn Ewers…
UCLA finished 2024 looking like a team that knew how to win when it mattered, going 5-2 in one-score games while getting blown out everywhere else. That story…
The 2024 Miami Hurricanes went 10-3 and spent the season hanging around the No. 1 conversation. Once you account for who they actually played, they were a genu…
Here is a stat that does something most of our numbers can't: it tells you not who is good right now, but who is about to get better. The field-position gap —…
Texas Tech went 7-5 in 2024 and a certain kind of bettor sees a bargain: a name-brand program, a returning quarterback, and a record that supposedly undersells…
In the ten years we've been able to line up a team's raw talent against what it actually did on the field, nobody has missed by as much as Florida State did in…
Washington led Boise State 10-3 with two minutes left in the first half. Thirty-nine seconds later it led 24-3. Demond Williams Jr. threw six yards to Dezmen R…
The final score said 13-10 and it looked like a defensive showcase. It was not. Ohio State's defense had its worst per-play efficiency game of the 2025 season.…
This is the rare championship matchup with no obvious favorite and no obvious flaw to attack. Indiana walks into Indianapolis 15-0 and ranked first in our powe…
Bring an abacus. Tennessee (4-1) outduels Arkansas (2-3), 34-31 at Neyland Stadium. The two sides combined for 65 points, and Tennessee had just a little more.
For about nine minutes inside Sanford Stadium, this had the shape of an opener with a pulse. Then Dwight Phillips Jr. broke off a 17-yard touchdown run in the…
