Southern Illinois vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Southern Illinois
▸
Northern Illinois1-0
Final
Huskie Stadium
SOUTTeam statsNIU
219Total yards360
148Pass297
71Rush63
11First downs19
1-113rd down8-16
0Turnovers3
24:01Possession35:59
- Q4 14:13NIUKacper Rutkiewicz 62 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Trayvon Rudolph Pass to Rocky Lombardi for Two-Point Conversion)14–11
- Q3 5:35NIUJake Seibert 27 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q3 11:45SOUTRo Elliott 10 Yd Run (Thomas Burks Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:58SOUTNic Baker 8 Yd Run (Jake Baumgarte Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
NIU −6.5
Against the number
SOUT covered
line NIU −6.5
Kickoff149 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
NIU (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NIU 0%
Closing line
NIU −6.5
Closing total
59.0
Model line
—
Actual result
SOUT 14 – 11 NIU
Southern Illinois
- PassNic Baker 16/24, 148 YDS
- RushRo Elliott 9 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAidan Quinn 2 REC, 51 YDS
Northern Illinois
- PassRocky Lombardi 23/38, 297 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushAntario Brown 22 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecKacper Rutkiewicz 6 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD
29sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
124
Points / snap
0.20
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSOUT up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
SOUT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Illinois vs. Northern Illinois?
Southern Illinois 14, Northern Illinois 11.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
SOUT
NIU
39%
Success rate
38%
-0.11
EPA / pass
0.28
0.24
EPA / rush
-0.07
49%
Early-down success
35%
37%
Pass success
40%
43%
Rush success
37%
10%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
11%
29%
Stuffed rush rate
13%
59%
Pass rate
59%
7.1
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.9
SOUT
7.1 yards to go on 3rd down
51 scrimmage snaps
NIU
6.9 yards to go on 3rd down
73 scrimmage snaps
| SOUT | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 219 | Total yards | 360 |
| 148 | Passing yards | 297 |
| 71 | Rushing yards | 63 |
| 11 | First downs | 19 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 16/24 | Comp/Att | 23/38 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-39 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 24:01 | Possession | 35:59 |
SOUT
9/10 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
NIU
5/7 with the model
−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q1 8:47 NIU punt on 4th & 3 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSOUT 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →NIU 2/12 scoring drives
SOUTPUNT4 pl, 23 yds· own 20Q1
NIUPUNT6 pl, 30 yds· own 20Q1
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 1Q1
NIUMISS5 pl, 13 yds· opp 43Q1
SOUTTD5 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
NIUMISS12 pl, 63 yds· own 12Q1
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
NIUPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 37Q2
SOUTPUNT7 pl, 28 yds· own 14Q2
NIUINT7 pl, 50 yds· own 20Q2
SOUTEND1 pl, -8 yds· own 15Q2
NIUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
SOUTTD5 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3
NIUFG13 pl, 65 yds· own 25Q3
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q3
NIUTD9 pl, 99 yds· own 1Q3
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q4
NIUINT2 pl, -1 yds· own 33Q4
SOUTPUNT4 pl, -1 yds· own 24Q4
NIUDOWNS5 pl, 20 yds· own 33Q4
SOUTMISS7 pl, 29 yds· own 47Q4
NIUPUNT3 pl, -16 yds· own 24Q4
SOUTPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 46Q4
NIUINT5 pl, 11 yds· opp 46Q4
SOUTEND3 pl, -3 yds· own 24Q4
- Q4 14:13NIUKacper Rutkiewicz 62 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Trayvon Rudolph Pass to Rocky Lombardi for Two-Point Conversion)14–11
- Q3 5:35NIUJake Seibert 27 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q3 11:45SOUTRo Elliott 10 Yd Run (Thomas Burks Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:58SOUTNic Baker 8 Yd Run (Jake Baumgarte Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →