Houston vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 1:11SDSUJuwan Washington 7 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)10–34
- Q4 8:58SDSUCurtis Anderson III 28 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)10–27
- Q3 0:56SDSURon Smith 54 Yd Interception Return (John Baron II Kick)10–20
- Q3 3:14SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 32 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)10–13
- Q2 1:29SDSUJohn Baron II 28 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 6:28SDSUJohn Baron II 23 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 1:22HOUGreg Ward Jr. 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:38HOUTy Cummings 31 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassGreg Ward 25/34, 229 YDS, 4 INT
- RushDuke Catalon 14 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecBrandon Wilson 5 REC, 52 YDS
- PassChristian Chapman 10/14, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDonnel Pumphrey 19 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDavid Wells 4 REC, 33 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:56SDSU +31%
Ron Smith 54 Yd Interception Return (John Baron II Kick)
- Q3 3:14SDSU +30%
Donnel Pumphrey 32 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)
- Q1 1:22HOU +14%
Greg Ward Jr. 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)
- Q4 8:58SDSU +11%
Curtis Anderson III 28 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)
- Q4 10:41SDSU +11%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 46
- Q3 1:25HOU +8%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 47
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. San Diego State?
Houston 10, San Diego State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 254 | Total yards | 255 |
| 229 | Passing yards | 128 |
| 25 | Rushing yards | 127 |
| 16 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/34 | Comp/Att | 10/14 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 0.6 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 32:12 | Possession | 27:48 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:46 SDSU punt on 4th & 2 at HOU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:11SDSUJuwan Washington 7 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)10–34
- Q4 8:58SDSUCurtis Anderson III 28 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)10–27
- Q3 0:56SDSURon Smith 54 Yd Interception Return (John Baron II Kick)10–20
- Q3 3:14SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 32 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)10–13
- Q2 1:29SDSUJohn Baron II 28 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 6:28SDSUJohn Baron II 23 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 1:22HOUGreg Ward Jr. 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:38HOUTy Cummings 31 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1666, HOU Elo 1836 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SDSU +6.8 (34% to win) — 2.8 points clear of HOU's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#43 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #100 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #40 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →| HOU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.5 (#31) | CORE overall | +14.9 (#15) |
| +1 / -9 | offense / defense | +2 / -13 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 2.72 |
| 1.66 | allowed / drive | 1.36 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →