Auburn vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AUBTeam statsMSST
- Q4 1:39AUBDaniel Carlson 25 Yd Field Goal 38–14
- Q4 10:14MSSTFred Ross 8 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)35–14
- Q3 5:48MSSTKeith Mixon 37 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)35–7
- Q2 1:45AUBMontravius Adams 13 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Carlson Kick)35–0
- Q2 1:54AUBKamryn Pettway 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)28–0
- Q2 12:15AUBKamryn Pettway 3 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:44AUBKamryn Pettway 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:28AUBRyan Davis 3 Yd pass from Sean White (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassSean White 14/18, 204 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKamryn Pettway 39 CAR, 169 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTony Stevens 3 REC, 64 YDS
- PassNick Fitzgerald 17/34, 181 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushNick Fitzgerald 17 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecKeith Mixon Jr. 2 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAUB up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:28AUB +18%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
- Q1 3:44AUB +14%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
- Q2 12:15AUB +9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Auburn vs. Mississippi State?
Auburn 38, Mississippi State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AUB) was correct.
| AUB | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 432 | Total yards | 289 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 186 |
| 228 | Rushing yards | 103 |
| 22 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 14/18 | Comp/Att | 18/35 |
| 11.3 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 7-80 |
| 33:22 | Possession | 26:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:09 AUB punt on 4th & 2 at MSST 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:39AUBDaniel Carlson 25 Yd Field Goal 38–14
- Q4 10:14MSSTFred Ross 8 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)35–14
- Q3 5:48MSSTKeith Mixon 37 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)35–7
- Q2 1:45AUBMontravius Adams 13 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Carlson Kick)35–0
- Q2 1:54AUBKamryn Pettway 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)28–0
- Q2 12:15AUBKamryn Pettway 3 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:44AUBKamryn Pettway 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:28AUBRyan Davis 3 Yd pass from Sean White (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1698, AUB Elo 1779 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST +0.8 (49% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#48 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #109 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Auburn leads 63–31–3 · 41% have been one-possession games
| AUB | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#16) | CORE overall | +0.4 (#61) |
| +7 / -8 | offense / defense | +5 / +4 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 2.22 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -12 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →