Massachusetts vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsRUTG
- Q4 1:57RUTGKJ Duff 6 Yd pass from AJ Surace (Dane Pizzaro Kick)37–21
- Q4 4:27MASSCurtis Kimmons IV 17 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)37–14
- Q4 7:09RUTGKJ Duff 78 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Dane Pizzaro Kick)30–14
- Q4 7:54MASSDerek Morris 31 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q3 8:22MASSDerek Morris 52 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q2 3:42MASSDerek Morris 30 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 9:43MASSJoseph Griffin Jr. 31 Yd pass from William Watson III (Derek Morris Kick)21–7
- Q2 11:46MASSElijah Faulkner 2 Yd pass from William Watson III (Derek Morris Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:26MASSElijah Faulkner 21 Yd pass from William Watson III (Derek Morris Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:20RUTGKJ Duff 4 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Dane Pizzaro Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Massachusetts walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
So much for the script. Massachusetts knocks off Rutgers, 37-21 at SHI Stadium. Massachusetts was not the side anyone expected to be up 16 at the end of it. William Watson III threw for 197 yards on 22 attempts with three touchdowns and ran six times for 40 yards.
- PassWilliam Watson III 19/22, 197 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCurtis Kimmons IV 11 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJoseph Griffin Jr. 2 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDylan Lonergan 16/29, 242 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushAntwan Raymond 14 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecKJ Duff 9 REC, 196 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMASS up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:38RUTG +87%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.Lonergan pass complete short right to #8 K.Duff caught at RU40, for 20 yards to the RU45 (#7 T.Magee; #3 K.Bournes), 1ST DOWN
- Q3 8:22MASS +15%
#99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD
- Q3 15:00RUTG +15%
Shotgun #2 T.Harding rush right for 13 yards gain to the UMASS28 (#7 K.Levy)
- Q4 11:32MASS +15%
PENALTY UMASS False Start (#51 G.Mills) 5 yards from UMASS45 to UMASS40. NO PLAY
- Q3 1:28MASS +14%
#43 E.Phillipson punt 46 yards to the RU36 #18 Q.Redding return 34 yards to the UMASS30 (#43 E.Phillipson) PENALTY RU Holding (#19 D.Fuse) 10 yards from UMASS50 to RU40
- Q2 3:42MASS +11%
#99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Rutgers?
Massachusetts 37, Rutgers 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked RUTG, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MASS | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 397 | Total yards | 346 |
| 197 | Passing yards | 319 |
| 200 | Rushing yards | 27 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 19/22 | Comp/Att | 22/38 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 1.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 8-60 | Penalties | 7-34 |
| 36:21 | Possession | 23:39 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:09 RUTG go for it on 4th & 13 at RUTG 22. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:57RUTGKJ Duff 6 Yd pass from AJ Surace (Dane Pizzaro Kick)37–21
- Q4 4:27MASSCurtis Kimmons IV 17 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)37–14
- Q4 7:09RUTGKJ Duff 78 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Dane Pizzaro Kick)30–14
- Q4 7:54MASSDerek Morris 31 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q3 8:22MASSDerek Morris 52 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q2 3:42MASSDerek Morris 30 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 9:43MASSJoseph Griffin Jr. 31 Yd pass from William Watson III (Derek Morris Kick)21–7
- Q2 11:46MASSElijah Faulkner 2 Yd pass from William Watson III (Derek Morris Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:26MASSElijah Faulkner 21 Yd pass from William Watson III (Derek Morris Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:20RUTGKJ Duff 4 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Dane Pizzaro Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1479, MASS Elo 978 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG -34 (99% to win) — 4.5 points clear of RUTG's market line of -29.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 21 in 2026 by biggest miss · #1 of 21 in 2026 by longest odds.
The 2026 upset archive →| MASS | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#122) | CORE overall | -13.1 (#117) |
| -10 / +6 | offense / defense | -1 / +12 |
| 3.70 | points / drive | 1.83 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 3.05 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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William Watson III had a hand in four of Massachusetts's six explosive plays
Massachusetts walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
We had this one the other way
Before kickoff we made Rutgers the pick by about 32. The model missed the side: it favored Rutgers by ~32, but Massachusetts won by 16 as the underdog.
The turnover battle was the game
Massachusetts won the turnover battle 0-4, chiefly Jahmad Harmon (2 INTs, 2 tackles), Isaiah Reed (1 INT, 2 PBUs, 0.5 tackles) and Romando Johnson (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 fumble rec, 1.5 tackles). Massachusetts scored on 58% of its drives to Rutgers's 25%, led by William Watson III (18 pts), Curtis Kimmons IV (6 pts) and Elijah Faulkner (12 pts). That's what carried Massachusetts.
Three plays
Three plays carried most of the swing. Dylan Lonergan's 0-yard run that came up short on 4th-and-1 at Q3 03:35. Then Dylan Lonergan's dropback that came up short on 1st-and-10 at Q4 14:50. Later, Dylan Lonergan's 78-yard throw to KJ Duff for a touchdown on 4th-and-13 at Q4 07:09.
The names on it
William Watson III threw for 197 yards on 22 attempts with three touchdowns and ran six times for 40 yards, including that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Curtis Kimmons IV ran 11 times for 78 yards and one score and caught one pass for 9 yards — that score from inside the 20. Elijah Faulkner ran 19 times for 62 yards and caught two passes for 23 yards, two of them for touchdowns — that score from inside the 20. For Rutgers, KJ Duff caught nine passes for 196 yards, three of them for touchdowns, including two of them from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Dylan Lonergan threw for 242 yards on 29 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 14 yards on seven carries — that score from inside the 20 and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. AJ Surace threw for 77 yards on nine attempts with one touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. Jahmad Harmon was the disruptive one for Massachusetts: 2 INTs, 2 tackles.
The order of events
Rutgers struck first through Dylan Lonergan, Massachusetts led 24-7 at the half and the final points came on a late touchdown by AJ Surace.
The disruptive ones
Three names to keep: Jahmad Harmon (2 INTs, 2 tackles) for Massachusetts, Isaiah Reed (1 INT, 2 PBUs, 0.5 tackles) for Massachusetts and Zeraun Daniel (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, 6.5 tackles) for Massachusetts. 2 of Massachusetts's 5 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 64% it had averaged over the previous 5 seasons.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A program win for Massachusetts; a gut-check loss Rutgers won't soon forget. KJ Duff was responsible for 18 of Rutgers's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →