Charleston Southern vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CHARTeam statsGASO
- Q3 7:17GASOTy Cummings 18 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–31
- Q2 0:19GASOTripp Bryant 32 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q1 0:16GASOWeston Bryan 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:58GASOAshton Hollins 57 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:51GASOJamarian Samuel 7 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CHAR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GASO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 5.9
Georgia Southern was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
Charleston Southern never had a foothold. Georgia Southern dismantles Charleston Southern, 31-0 at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. Georgia Southern led from start to finish and never let Charleston Southern within striking distance. Max Johnson threw for 281 yards on 39 attempts with one touchdown.
- PassLek Powell 6/20, 69 YDS
- RushDwayne Wright 6 CAR, 14 YDS
- RecKD Dorsey 2 REC, 42 YDS
- PassMax Johnson 28/39, 281 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJamarian Samuel 4 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAshton Hollins 8 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Charleston Southern vs. Georgia Southern?
Charleston Southern 0, Georgia Southern 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
| CHAR | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 117 | Total yards | 513 |
| 109 | Passing yards | 351 |
| 8 | Rushing yards | 162 |
| 10 | First downs | 26 |
| 5-18 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 9/29 | Comp/Att | 33/47 |
| 3.8 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 0.3 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 24:04 | Possession | 35:56 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:36 CHAR punt on 4th & 15 at GASO 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 7:17GASOTy Cummings 18 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–31
- Q2 0:19GASOTripp Bryant 32 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q1 0:16GASOWeston Bryan 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:58GASOAshton Hollins 57 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:51GASOJamarian Samuel 7 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects GASO -23.8 (92% to win) — 4.7 points clear of CHAR's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Max Johnson produced 8 of Georgia Southern's 15 explosive plays
Georgia Southern was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
The big plays only went one way
Georgia Southern produced 15 plays of 15+ yards to Charleston Southern's 3, chiefly Max Johnson (involved in 8), Turner Helton (involved in 3) and Ashton Hollins (involved in 2). Georgia Southern won the turnover battle 0-2, chiefly Jayden Jackson (1 INT, 1 tackle) and Festus Davies (1 sack, 2 TFLs, 1 fumble rec, 2 tackles). Stacked together, it was never close.
The difference-makers
Max Johnson threw for 281 yards on 39 attempts with one touchdown — three third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Ashton Hollins caught eight passes for 106 yards, one of them for a touchdown. Terrance Gibbs ran five times for 19 yards. For Charleston Southern, Lek Powell threw for 35 yards on 15 attempts and lost 30 yards on seven carries, including two third-down conversions. KD Dorsey caught one pass for 28 yards. Chance Gamble was the disruptive one for Georgia Southern: 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 1 PBU, 2 tackles.
What Charleston Southern has to fix
The problems had names: Lek Powell (1 lost fumble) and Jared Echols (1 interception).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep, all for Georgia Southern: Jayden Jackson (1 INT, 1 tackle) and Chance Gamble (1 sack, 2 TFLs, 1 PBU, 2 tackles). 0 of Georgia Southern's 6 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 59% it had averaged over the previous 8 seasons.
How we got here
Georgia Southern struck first through Jamarian Samuel, led 24-0 at the half and Georgia Southern got the final points on a late touchdown by Ty Cummings.
How it graded
The closing line had Georgia Southern -28.5. Georgia Southern covered. The total was 51.5; the teams combined for 31, an under. Max Johnson accounted for 6 of Georgia Southern's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Georgia Southern cleared the bar with room to spare; Charleston Southern goes back to the drawing board.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →