Washington State vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsCSU
- Q2 1:01WSUAdemola Faleye 2 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)20–3
- Q2 5:16WSUJack Stevens 21 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q1 2:05WSUJack Stevens 37 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 8:43WSUJeremiah Noga 35 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:32CSUIsaiah Hankins 50 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.1 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassZevi Eckhaus 16/28, 189 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLeo Pulalasi 3 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecJoshua Meredith 4 REC, 60 YDS
- PassJackson Brousseau 19/28, 188 YDS
- RushJalen Dupree 13 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecTommy Maher 5 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:01WSU +14%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Ademola Faleye for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)
- Q2 5:16WSU +11%
Jack Stevens 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 11:32CSU +8%
Isaiah Hankins 50 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 3:09WSU +8%
Maxwell Woods run for 6 yds to the CSU 42
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. Colorado State?
Washington State 20, Colorado State 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WSU | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 347 | Total yards | 334 |
| 189 | Passing yards | 188 |
| 158 | Rushing yards | 146 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 16/28 | Comp/Att | 19/28 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 7-60 |
| 31:23 | Possession | 28:37 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:09 WSU punt on 4th & 1 at WSU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q2 1:01WSUAdemola Faleye 2 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)20–3
- Q2 5:16WSUJack Stevens 21 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q1 2:05WSUJack Stevens 37 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 8:43WSUJeremiah Noga 35 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:32CSUIsaiah Hankins 50 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1368, WSU Elo 1307 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU -4.8 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#49 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #81 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| WSU | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#40) | CORE overall | -19.4 (#123) |
| +3 / -7 | offense / defense | -8 / +12 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 1.58 |
| 1.86 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →