San José State vs. Nevada: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

San José State3-6

Nevada1-8

▸

Final

Mackay StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
SJSU	0	0	3	7	10
NEV	14	17	7	17	55

SJSUTeam statsNEV

270Total yards413

145Pass195

125Rush218

14First downs23

4-133rd down4-11

5Turnovers0

22:35Possession37:25

Q4 1:10NEVKy Woods 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Joe McFadden Kick)10–55
Q4 1:23SJSUTama Amisone 12 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)10–48
Q4 4:37NEVJoe McFadden 26 Yd Field Goal 3–48
Q4 10:57NEVDominic Kelley 5 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)3–45
Q3 2:53NEVCaleb Ramseur 11 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)3–38
Q3 8:12SJSUMathias Brown 46 Yd Field Goal 3–31
Q2 0:01NEVJoe McFadden 50 Yd Field Goal 0–31
Q2 10:49NEVChubba Purdy 13 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)0–28
Q2 12:21NEVCaleb Ramseur 30 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)0–21
Q1 6:20NEVChubba Purdy 7 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)0–14
Q1 9:24NEVNakian Jackson 66 Yd Interception Return (Joe McFadden Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

SJSU −9.0

market SJSU −9.5

Biggest swing

NEV +20%

Q2 12:21

Against the number

NEV covered

line SJSU −9.5

NEV favored ↑50%SJSU favored ↓

GridpexNEV 100%

Closing line

SJSU −9.5

Closing total

49.5

Model line

SJSU −9.0

Actual result

SJSU 10 – 55 NEV

San José State

PassWalker Eget 11/23, 74 YDS, 3 INT
RushSteve Chavez-Soto 8 CAR, 47 YDS
RecKyri Shoels 3 REC, 47 YDS

Nevada

PassCarter Jones 16/19, 195 YDS, 2 TD
RushCaleb Ramseur 20 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
RecDakota Thomas 6 REC, 85 YDS

21.2sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

123

Points / snap

0.53

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NEV up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NEV went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WAir Force vs Robert Morris42-7 WMiami (OH) vs Delaware State62-20 WMaine vs Stony Brook56-28 WMichigan vs Nebraska45-7 WSouth Dakota State vs Northern Iowa41-6

Q2 12:21NEV +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #41 C.Ramseur caught at SJSU33, for 30 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q2 10:49NEV +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 13 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q4 4:25SJSU +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone rush middle for 2 yards loss to the SJSU23 (#19 S.Cook)
Q1 6:20NEV +17%
Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #13 C.Purdy caught at SJSU10, for 7 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN
Q4 10:39SJSU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass complete short left to #85 J.Canaan caught at SJSU15, for 12 yards to the SJSU25 (#1 A.Odums), 1ST DOWN
Q4 4:37NEV +12%
#84 J.McFadden field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD

FAQ

What was the final score of San José State vs. Nevada?

San José State 10, Nevada 55.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

SJSU

NEV

38%

Success rate

50%

-0.22

EPA / pass

1.04

0.19

EPA / rush

0.15

34%

Early-down success

50%

34%

Pass success

65%

42%

Rush success

43%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

12%

Stuffed rush rate

12%

57%

Pass rate

32%

7.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.8

SJSU

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

NEV

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

SJSU		NEV
270	Total yards	413
145	Passing yards	195
125	Rushing yards	218
14	First downs	23
4-13	3rd down	4-11
1-3	4th down	2-2
16/32	Comp/Att	16/19
4.5	Yards per pass	10.3
4.8	Yards per rush	5.2
5	Turnovers	0
6-64	Penalties	2-20
22:35	Possession	37:25

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

NEV 1105

SJSU 1391

Projected spread

NEV +9

incl. home edge

Model pick

SJSU

72% to win

Market spread

NEV +9.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

28%

NEV · market 25%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1105, SJSU Elo 1391 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +9 (28% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

SJSU2025 season · national rank shownNEV

403.350th

Total yards / game

302.4126th

6.038th

Yards / play

5.0117th

283.213th

Passing yards / game

147.2127th

120.1111th

Rushing yards / game

155.373rd

42.6%40th

3rd down %

32.1%127th

404.1102nd

Yards allowed / game

370.563rd

36.7%48th

3rd down % allowed

38.1%55th

-13133rd

Turnover margin

-12129th

5.857th

Penalties / game

5.333rd

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Nevada were +9.5 — a 28% shot

#1 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #43 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.

The 2025 upset archive →

The series29 meetings since 1948

Nevada leads 21–8 · 38% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

SJSU		NEV
-4.3 (#78)	CORE overall	-15.3 (#110)
-1 / +3	offense / defense	-11 / +4
1.65	points / drive	1.33
2.60	allowed / drive	2.49
28%	three-and-outs	30%
+13	pass over expected	-8

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Sat, Nov 15, 3:30 PM EST
Venue: Mackay Stadium
Setting: Conference game
Model line: SJSU -9.0

The Model's Pick

San José State

to win · 72%

✗ Miss

Projected spreadSJSU -9.0

Market75%

Game Leaders

San José State

Pass Walker Eget11/23, 74 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
Rush Steve Chavez-Soto8 car, 47 yds
Rec Kyri Shoels3 rec, 47 yds

Nevada

Pass Carter Jones16/19, 195 yds, 2 TD
Rush Caleb Ramseur20 car, 128 yds, 1 TD
Rec Dakota Thomas6 rec, 85 yds

Biggest Plays

Nevada+-8.8 EPA
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #0 N.Jackson at Nevada34 #0 N.Jackson return 66 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:24 #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)
Nevada+4.1 EPA
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #41 C.Ramseur caught at SJSU33, for 30 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:21, 1ST DOWN #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)
San José State+3.8 EPA
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #5 M.Kenion III at Nevada48 #5 M.Kenion III return 39 yards to the SJSU20 fumbled by #5 M.Kenion III at SJSU20 forced by #1 L.Smith recovered by Nevada #22 H.McDonald at SJSU13, End Of Play

SJSUTeam statsNEV

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of San José State vs. Nevada?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

San José State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap

SJSUTeam statsNEV

How the model called it

What was the final score of San José State vs. Nevada?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups