East Carolina vs. UTSA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsUTSA
- Q4 7:28ECUJayvontay Conner 1 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–58
- Q4 10:41UTSAShad Banks Jr. 21 Yd Interception Return (Michael Petro Kick)18–58
- Q4 12:58ECUMarlon Gunn Jr. 50 Yd Run (Katin Houser Pass to Rion Roseborough for Two-Point Conversion)18–51
- Q4 14:53UTSAJaren Randle 12 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)10–51
- Q3 1:15ECUAnthony Smith 50 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)10–44
- Q3 1:59UTSAMichael Petro 37 Yd Field Goal 3–44
- Q3 7:07UTSADJ Allen Jr. 4 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)3–41
- Q2 0:12UTSAMichael Petro 37 Yd Field Goal 3–34
- Q2 0:44ECUNick Mazzie 32 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q2 3:47UTSAMichael Petro 25 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 9:31UTSAA'Marion Peterson 8 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)0–28
- Q2 13:56UTSADavid Amador II 45 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:08UTSAHouston Thomas 5 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:18UTSAAJ Wilson 11 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKatin Houser 18/32, 241 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarlon Gunn Jr. 5 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAnthony Smith 8 REC, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- PassOwen McCown 24/33, 248 YDS, 5 TD
- RushWill Henderson III 19 CAR, 146 YDS
- RecDavid Amador II 5 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTSA up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. UTSA?
East Carolina 24, UTSA 58.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ECU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ECU | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 401 | Total yards | 458 |
| 243 | Passing yards | 248 |
| 158 | Rushing yards | 210 |
| 15 | First downs | 27 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/33 | Comp/Att | 24/33 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 12-120 | Penalties | 9-56 |
| 22:31 | Possession | 37:29 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:57 ECU punt on 4th & 1 at ECU 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:28ECUJayvontay Conner 1 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–58
- Q4 10:41UTSAShad Banks Jr. 21 Yd Interception Return (Michael Petro Kick)18–58
- Q4 12:58ECUMarlon Gunn Jr. 50 Yd Run (Katin Houser Pass to Rion Roseborough for Two-Point Conversion)18–51
- Q4 14:53UTSAJaren Randle 12 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)10–51
- Q3 1:15ECUAnthony Smith 50 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)10–44
- Q3 1:59UTSAMichael Petro 37 Yd Field Goal 3–44
- Q3 7:07UTSADJ Allen Jr. 4 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)3–41
- Q2 0:12UTSAMichael Petro 37 Yd Field Goal 3–34
- Q2 0:44ECUNick Mazzie 32 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q2 3:47UTSAMichael Petro 25 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 9:31UTSAA'Marion Peterson 8 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)0–28
- Q2 13:56UTSADavid Amador II 45 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:08UTSAHouston Thomas 5 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:18UTSAAJ Wilson 11 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1472, ECU Elo 1604 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA +2.9 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #104 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| ECU | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.8 (#46) | CORE overall | +4.7 (#58) |
| +2 / -5 | offense / defense | +3 / -2 |
| 2.48 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →