Arkansas vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARKTeam statsTENN
- Q4 2:55ARKKam Shanks 12 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)31–34
- Q4 8:17ARKRohan Jones 9 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)24–34
- Q4 13:14TENNPeyton Lewis 3 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)17–34
- Q3 2:11TENNPeyton Lewis 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)17–27
- Q3 11:50TENNMax Gilbert 50 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 2:52TENNMiles Kitselman 8 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)17–17
- Q2 4:36ARKMike Washington Jr. 1 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:36TENNMax Gilbert 37 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 0:20ARKScott Starzyk 28 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 7:39TENNDeSean Bishop 17 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:10ARKTaylen Green 11 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Nobody could get a stop. What separated Tennessee in a track meet.
Bring an abacus. Tennessee (4-1) outduels Arkansas (2-3), 34-31 at Neyland Stadium. The two sides combined for 65 points, and Tennessee had just a little more.
- PassTaylen Green 21/31, 256 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMike Washington Jr. 19 CAR, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRaylen Sharpe 7 REC, 76 YDS
- PassJoey Aguilar 16/25, 221 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDeSean Bishop 14 CAR, 146 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBraylon Staley 6 REC, 109 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:03TENN +25%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 13 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST down
- Q2 4:36ARK +23%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
- Q1 10:10ARK +17%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
- Q1 7:39TENN +16%
DeSean Bishop run for 17 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
- Q3 0:00ARK +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Taylen rush left for 7 yards gain to the ARK41, out of bounds at ARK41 PENALTY ARK Holding (Robinson II,Corey) 10 yards from ARK34 to ARK24. NO…
- Q4 8:17ARK +12%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rohan Jones for 9 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. Tennessee?
Arkansas 31, Tennessee 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
| ARK | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 496 | Total yards | 485 |
| 256 | Passing yards | 221 |
| 240 | Rushing yards | 264 |
| 29 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/31 | Comp/Att | 16/25 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-10 | Penalties | 10-78 |
| 34:55 | Possession | 25:05 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:04 TENN punt on 4th & 6 at ARK 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:55ARKKam Shanks 12 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)31–34
- Q4 8:17ARKRohan Jones 9 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)24–34
- Q4 13:14TENNPeyton Lewis 3 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)17–34
- Q3 2:11TENNPeyton Lewis 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)17–27
- Q3 11:50TENNMax Gilbert 50 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 2:52TENNMiles Kitselman 8 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)17–17
- Q2 4:36ARKMike Washington Jr. 1 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:36TENNMax Gilbert 37 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 0:20ARKScott Starzyk 28 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 7:39TENNDeSean Bishop 17 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:10ARKTaylen Green 11 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1827, ARK Elo 1608 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TENN -11.2 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTennessee leads 14–7 · 48% have been one-possession games
| ARK | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.7 (#37) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#26) |
| +20 / +9 | offense / defense | +16 / +1 |
| 2.72 | points / drive | 3.27 |
| 3.48 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Tennessee outduels Arkansas in a 65-point shootout, 34-31
Nobody could get a stop. What separated Tennessee in a track meet.
The way it played out
Arkansas struck first, the game was tied 17-17 at the break and the final points came on a late touchdown by Arkansas.
Where the game was won
Tennessee never turned it over while Arkansas gave it away 2 times and Tennessee kept starting with shorter fields — about 6 yards better per drive. That's what carried Tennessee.
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = ARKA ahead, below = TENN ahead.
Who carried it
Tennessee leaned on Joey Aguilar (221 passing yards, 1 TD), DeSean Bishop (146 rushing yards, 1 TD) and Braylon Staley (109 receiving yards). DeSean Bishop went well above his season norm — 146 rushing yards, 76% over his average.
Each bar is one regular-season game (official box). DeSean's 146 rushing yds in the title game was a season high — the 100th percentile of his own year.
Key players' yardage vs their per-game season norm.
Against the line
The closing line had Tennessee -10.0. Arkansas covered. The total was 68.5; the teams combined for 65, an under.
What it means
Points were never the problem for Tennessee; stops will be the offseason project for both.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →