Alabama vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsFSU
- Q4 7:17FSUGavin Sawchuk 14 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)17–31
- Q4 11:00ALARico Scott 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)17–24
- Q3 5:59ALAConor Talty 40 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 9:45FSUCaziah Holmes 4 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–24
- Q2 3:44FSUJake Weinberg 45 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 9:13FSUMicahi Danzy 32 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:04FSUTommy Castellanos 9 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:10ALAJosh Cuevas 2 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTy Simpson 23/43, 254 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKevin Riley 5 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecGermie Bernard 8 REC, 146 YDS
- PassThomas Castellanos 9/14, 152 YDS
- RushThomas Castellanos 16 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaylin Lucas 2 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:16ALA +32%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FSU 40 for a 1ST down
- Q4 11:00ALA +25%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 6 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
- Q2 9:13FSU +20%
Micahi Danzy run for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
- Q3 9:45FSU +19%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
- Q4 8:30FSU +18%
Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ALA 47 for a 1ST down
- Q2 3:44FSU +17%
Jake Weinberg 45 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Florida State?
Alabama 17, Florida State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ALA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ALA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Total yards | 382 |
| 254 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 87 | Rushing yards | 230 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 23/43 | Comp/Att | 9/14 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 10.9 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-70 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 29:38 | Possession | 30:22 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:16 FSU punt on 4th & 4 at ALA 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:17FSUGavin Sawchuk 14 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)17–31
- Q4 11:00ALARico Scott 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)17–24
- Q3 5:59ALAConor Talty 40 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 9:45FSUCaziah Holmes 4 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–24
- Q2 3:44FSUJake Weinberg 45 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 9:13FSUMicahi Danzy 32 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:04FSUTommy Castellanos 9 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:10ALAJosh Cuevas 2 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1408, ALA Elo 1824 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU +14.2 (19% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #23 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #5 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| ALA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#14) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#29) |
| +7 / -13 | offense / defense | +13 / -1 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 2.75 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →