#12Jaylin Lucas

RB·Florida State·2025

Jaylin Lucas is a Pass-Catching Back for Florida State. Jaylin's 2025 season produced 5.3 total EPA across 35 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jaylin Lucas's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

160 Rush yards0 Rush TD27 Carries5.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions88 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.0 Yards/rec

Returns

9 Kick returns221 KR yards0 KR TD3 Punt returns18 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume14
Explosiveness58
Consistency18
Receiving100

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency18th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.39 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.59 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Kent State (SP+ -19).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsAlabama	W31-17	14.8	6	22	3.7	0	2	66	0	0.61
2	vsEast Texas A&M	W77-3	—	4	23	5.8	0	1	5	0	0.41
4	vsKent State	W66-10	-19.3	2	44	22.0	0	—	—	—	1.59
5	@Virginia	L38-46	11.1	1	9	9.0	0	—	—	—	0.53
6	vsMiami	L22-28	20.7	1	3	3.0	0	1	2	0	-0.59
7	vsPittsburgh	L31-34	8.4	—	—	—	—	1	3	0	-0.17
8	@Stanford	L13-20	-11.8	2	3	1.5	0	1	5	0	-0.15
10	vsWake Forest	W42-7	5.7	2	6	3.0	0	—	—	—	0.10
11	@Clemson	L10-24	9.5	2	16	8.0	0	2	-6	0	-0.23
12	vsVirginia Tech	W34-14	-10.1	2	10	5.0	0	2	13	0	0.36
13	@NC State	L11-21	4.8	3	11	3.7	0	—	—	—	0.30
14	@Florida	L21-40	3.5	2	13	6.5	0	1	0	0	-0.33

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

5.0%

Passing plays

4.5%

Rushing plays

5.4%

Standard downs

4.8%

Passing downs

5.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.22
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.17 / 0.36

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).